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Gujarat set for 3-cornered electoral fight as ECI announces poll dates
In 2017, the BJP registered its worst performance since coming to power in Gujarat, bagging 99 out of 182 seats
Gujarat is set for a three-cornered electoral fight with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) looking to make inroads into Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah’s home state, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been in power for around three decades with Congress as its main rival.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Thursday announced the 15th Gujarat assembly elections will be held in two phases on December 1 and 5. The votes will be counted on December 8.
The Gujarat poll schedule was announced weeks after the ECI said polls to the 68-seat Himachal Pradesh assembly will be held on November 12. Opposition parties questioned the rationale behind ECI’s move of not announcing elections in Gujarat along with Himachal Pradesh on October 15. They alleged it was done to help the BJP announce more pre-election sops.
In 2017, the BJP registered its worst performance since coming to power in Gujarat. The party bagged 99 out of 182 seats. The Congress won 77 seats, the Bharatiya Tribal Party two, and the Nationalist Congress Party one. The remaining seats went to independents.
BJP’s best performance was in 2002 when Modi was the chief minister. It bagged 127 seats. Congress won 149 seats, the highest ever, in 1985 under Madhavsinh Solanki’s leadership.
The Congress improved its performance significantly in 2017 as the BJP returned to power for the fifth time. But 14 of its lawmakers later switched over to the BJP.
The Congress focussed on issues such as unemployment, reservation for the Patidar community, farmers, and demonetization in the run-up to the 2017 elections. Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani, Hardik Patel from the Patidar community, and Alpesh Thakor, who emerged as an Other Backward Class (OBC) leader, campaigned against the BJP. Patel and Thakor have since quit Congress.
Ahead of the 2022 polls, AAP has focussed on issues like corruption, education, healthcare, and unemployment. The party has sought to make inroads in the BJP bastion by announcing “guarantees” like free electricity, free education, and a monthly stipend to unemployed youths and women above 18 if it is voted to power.
AAP took out tricolour marches in 30 of Gujarat’s 33 districts in two days after sweeping Punjab state assembly elections in March. Kejriwal and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann have frequently visited Gujarat since, making announcements and holding several rallies in Saurashtra, Surat, and Tribal regions that have over 90 assembly seats.
Patel Anamat Andolan Samiti convenor Alpesh Kathiriya, who spearheaded the Patidar reservation agitation in 2017 alongside Hardik Patel, joined AAP in the presence of Kejriwal in the run to the 2022 polls.
Isudan Gadhvi and Gopal Italia have emerged as AAP’s two prominent faces. Italia was in the news recently after an old video emerged purportedly showing him using insulting language for Modi and his mother.
The BJP government has faced protests this year. Government employees have been demanding better wages and working conditions. Teachers, forest department officials, Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, mid-day meal workers, etc, have held a series of protests between August and October. Most of them have been called off after demands were fulfilled or assurances were given.
Modi, who is the star campaigner for the party, launched the BJP’s campaign by holding a roadshow in Ahmedabad on March 11. A day earlier, the BJP stormed back to power in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa.
Modi has since visited his home state almost twice a month. He has inaugurated development projects and held rallies. Shah has also been visiting the state and holding rallies. Gujarat chief C R Patil has also emerged as a key BJP strategist.
The BJP is yet to announce any candidates. Chief minister Bhupendra Patel is likely to continue as its chief minister if the party retains the state with a comfortable win.
“At least 30% of the sitting candidates will not be fielded this time. Patil has a strategy in place where four senior BJP leaders are identified for every candidate who is not likely to be fielded,” said a BJP functionary, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Gujarat hosted the National Games and the Defence Expo 2022 in the run-up to the polls and faced two tragedies. At least 42 people died after consuming spurious country liquor in Botad and Ahmedabad districts. At least 135 people were killed on October 30 after a bridge collapsed in Morbi.
Kejriwal has also targeted Congress in Gujarat saying it is missing from campaigning. Modi has cautioned BJP supporters that Congress has changed its strategy and was working silently.
The elections in Gujarat and Himachal are the first since Mallikarjun Kharge took over as the Congress chief. This will be the first election in two decades in Gujarat that the Congress will fight without one of its key strategists, Ahmed Patel, who died in December last year.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised free electricity and free health insurance of ₹10 lakh if his party is voted to power. Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot is the in-charge of the Congress in Gujarat. The party suffered a major setback when Hardik Patel left Congress and joined the BJP this year.
Congress lawmaker Anant Patel has emerged as a prominent face of the party after he led an agitation of tribals that forced the Centre to cancel the Par-Tapi-Narmada river-linking project in May to avoid the displacement of tribals from their ancestral land.
Jagdish Thakor, who has a large following in the OBC community, is the Gujarat Congress president. The party is unlikely to announce its chief ministerial candidate.
