How Trump's 100% move in US-China trade war could help Indian exports | Explained

Experts say that the US’s higher tariffs on Chinese goods are likely to boost demand for Indian products.

The escalating trade war between the US and China might have a global ripple effect but it could benefit Indian exporters. The tariffs on China could help in increasing Indian shipments to the American market, according to experts.

A container ship sails at the port in Qingdao, in China�s eastern Shandong province on October 9, 2025. (AFP)

SC Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, told PTI that the US’s higher tariffs on Chinese goods are likely to boost demand for Indian products, which totaled to USD 86 billion in exports to the US during 2024-25.

"We may gain from this escalation," Ralhan said.

The US has announced an additional 100 per cent tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025, raising the overall tariffs to 130%.

The move came in response to Beijing's October 9, 2025 decision to impose controls on rare earth exports, which are vital for US defense, electric vehicles, and clean-energy industries.

How will it benefit Indian exporters?

Currently, the US tariffs on Indian goods are 50 per cent.

"Now this 100 per cent additional tariff on Chinese goods will give us an edge," a textile exporter said, adding the imposition of higher customs duties by the US on imports from China provides huge export opportunities for India to America.

The tariffs would affect exports from China to the US as they would increase prices of their goods in the American market, said another exporter.

Toy exporter Manu Gupta too said that high duties on Chinese goods will help in attracting buyers. "It will help us. High duty will create a parity and will give us a level playing field," Gupta said, adding American buyers like retail giant Target have reached out to them for new products.

Think tank GTRI said that the US-China trade war will lead to a rise in the prices of EVs, wind turbines, and semiconductor parts in the global markets.

Future of India-US trade

The US relies heavily on China for electronics, textiles, footwear, white goods, and solar panels, it said.

• The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25.
• Its bilateral trade is at USD 131.84 billion (USD 86.5 billion exports).
• The US accounts for about 18% of India's total goods exports, 6.22% in imports, and 10.73% in the country's total merchandise trade.

India and the US are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement.

Which countries will feel the impact?

Mexico and Canada, as major trading partners of the United States, are expected to bear significant economic costs from the new tariffs.

Other countries in Asia, including South Korea, Japan, and Singapore, are also vulnerable to the ripple effects of the trade war.

Strong trade ties with both the US and China mean that disruptions in supply chains could slow economic growth in these nations, particularly in sectors such as electronics, technology, and manufacturing.