India highlights north-south divide in emissions on day 1 of COP 26

The Climate Equity Monitor has a stark map of carbon credit/ debt which shows all the northern countries have exceeded their fair share of the global carbon budget

On the first day of the Glasgow climate change conference (COP 26), India highlighted the large disparity in historical emissions of rich or developed countries and developing countries like India.

Carbon debt, according to the monitor, is the difference between the actual cumulative emissions for a country and its fair share of the global carbon budget already consumed. (Shutterstock)

The Climate Change Group at MS Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) launched a Climate Equity Monitor, an online dashboard for assessing equity in climate change mitigation.

Union environment minister, Bhupender Yadav, said the monitor will encourage discussion on issues related to equity and justice at the ongoing climate negotiations.

“Welcome the scientific initiative, Climate Equity Monitor, (https://t.co/KzqShJ1Ggt) which went live today. Its focus on equity & climate action from a data and evidence-based perspective will encourage vigorous discussion on the crucial issue and engage experts from all nations,” he tweeted on Sunday. PM Narendra Modi is likely to address COP 26 and over 120 world leaders on India’s actions to mitigate climate change during the World Leaders Summit scheduled on November 1.

The Climate Equity Monitor has a stark map of carbon credit/ debt which shows all the northern countries, including the United States, Russia, Australia, most European countries, have exceeded their fair share of the global carbon budget.

Carbon debt, according to the monitor, is the difference between the actual cumulative emissions for a country and its fair share of the global carbon budget already consumed. The values for developed countries clearly indicate their responsibility and the massive carbon debt they owe the world, it states. On the other hand, the southern countries including India, China, Africa, South America and others highlighted in blue indicating that they have generated credits by consuming less than their fair share.

A fair share of the carbon budget is defined as the share of the cumulative emissions based on the share in the global population.

The monitor also has an interactive graph on historical emissions which indicates China, followed by the US and the EU, have the highest historical greenhouse gas emissions, the monitor was jointly developed with the Natural Sciences and Engineering department at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) Bengaluru.

“The Climate Equity Monitor is aimed at monitoring the performance of Annex-I Parties (developed countries) based on the foundational principles of the Climate Convention, namely equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The performance and policies of the Non-Annex-I Parties (developing countries) will be also provided for comparison,” a statement by the union environment ministry welcoming the launch of the monitor said.

CBDR RC is a principle under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which acknowledges different capabilities and differing responsibilities of individual countries in addressing climate change based on their social and economic conditions.

“In keeping with the latest scientific results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that have underlined the importance of cumulative emissions and carbon budgets, the analysis will be anchored in these two concepts. The equitable sharing of the global carbon budget is the fundamental equity principle that will underpin the assessments that will progressively appear on the website.

Existing “tracking” websites on climate policies are based in the global North and routinely do not address the crucial aspects of equity and differentiation. Other websites, according to the researchers, bury the key issues in complexities that are not transparently dealt with,” the ministry further said in its statement.

Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) had recently flagged that China is currently the world’s biggest emitter – it has increased its share of global CO2 emissions from 5.11% in 1990 to almost 21% in 2019. According to a recent analysis by CSE, in the coming ten years, China will take up 33% of the remaining carbon budget of 409 GtCO2 and India may occupy only 9.54% of the budget. Between 1870 and 2019 China occupied 13.4% of the global carbon budget; India 3.16% and the seven historical polluters— United Kingdom, United States, European Union-27, Russia, Japan, Australia, and Canada occupied 60.53% of the carbon budget. The share changed quite a bit between 1990 and 2019 when China occupied nearly 21% of the carbon budget. This means China went through a very intense phase of development mainly dependent on fossil fuels during those 20 odd years. “We cannot compare India and China. It’s time we de-hyphenated the two,” Sunita Narain, director general, Centre for Science and Environment, said during a recent briefing to climate journalists.

Meanwhile, the Climate Action Tracker also released an analysis on India’s role in climate change mitigation on Sunday. It suggested that coal should be phased out globally, and in India by 2040, to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. Early retirement of older coal power plants and re-evaluation of the coal pipeline – would align India with the level of policies and action consistent with its own “fair share” contribution to the Paris Agreement. Such measures in India would very likely result in a 1.5 degree C compatible rating by CAT, it said.

“We estimate that this reduction in coal-fired capacity, in the absence of additional efficiency measures, would require 160–320 GW of additional renewable capacity to India’s previously communicated 450 GW by 2030 goal. India is likely to achieve, and may even over-achieve, the 450 GW goal, including hydro, under current policies,” the CAT said.

HT reported on September 17 that India’s nationally determined contribution (NDC), which was rated as 2 degrees compatible or “almost sufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker until August, had rated India as “highly insufficient” in its action and policies on climate change in September. This is because Climate Action Tracker had updated its rating system. CAT is supported by several foundations and governments including the European Climate Foundation and the German Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) etc.