E-Paper
Monsoon forecast brings relief to farmers, industry
The monsoon rains are critical because nearly 60% of India’s net arable land lacks irrigation and half the population depends on agriculture for a livelihood.
The prediction of a normal June-to-September monsoon by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has brought relief to farmers, industry, and the government alike as it will likely lessen the strain on the economy from widespread disruptions caused by the covid-19 pandemic, experts said on Wednesday.
The monsoon rains are critical because nearly 60% of India’s net arable land lacks irrigation and half the population depends on agriculture for a livelihood.
With good rains, spending by rural consumers on manufactured items such as television sets and gold jewellery goes up, and boosts factory output. A deficient monsoon cuts rural consumption and also drives up inflation. A normal monsoon is key for robust agricultural output growth, which the government targets at around 4%.
“Deficit rain could have toughened the fight against the covid-19 pandemic because not only does it necessitate costly drought-fighting measures, but poor rains also directly impact rural farm-derived incomes,” said economist R Mani of the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University. Prediction of a normal monsoon rainfall is good news and offers a ray of hope of keeping farm incomes going amid such times, he added.
The monsoon is said to be normal if rains are between 96% and 104% of the country’s long-term summer rainfall average of 88 cm. This year, the rains are predicted to be 100% of this average. Farmers await the arrival of monsoon on June 1 to begin kharif sowing of a range of crops such as rice, lentils, gram, soybean, cotton, tea, coarse cereals, fruits and vegetables. A good monsoon results in robust farm output and eases inflationary pressures. A poor one could increase pressure on rural incomes and the make-work rural jobs under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme.
