Monsoon unlikely to advance for next 3 to 4 days: IMD

Easterly winds are likely to resume from June 27 and cause very heavy to intense rainfall in places such as Karnataka, Konkan, Goa

The monsoon is unlikely to advance for the next three to four days because of dry, westerly winds setting in over northwest India from Wednesday, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday. Easterly winds are likely to resume from June 27 and cause very heavy to intense rainfall in places such as Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, it warned.

Skymet Weather vice president (climate change and meteorology) Mahesh Palawat said the east-west trough stretching from Haryana to northeast India was south of Delhi but now likely to shift north to the Himalayan foothills. (HT Photo)

RK Jenamani, a senior scientist at IMD’s National Weather Forecasting Centre, said they are not providing any outlook for the advance of monsoon for three to four days in view of the westerly wind pattern. “We will wait for the easterly wind pattern to establish. Intense rainfall in north-eastern states is reducing gradually but...very heavy rain is likely along the west coast.”

Skymet Weather vice president (climate change and meteorology) Mahesh Palawat said the east-west trough stretching from Haryana to northeast India was south of Delhi but now likely to shift north to the Himalayan foothills. He added when this happens the wind pattern becomes westerly. “These westerlies will reach up to east Uttar Pradesh and south Madhya Pradesh. Only when easterly winds resume around June 27, the monsoon will cover all of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh and move to Delhi.”

Under the influence of an offshore trough and strong westerly winds along the west coast in lower tropospheric levels, widespread rainfall with thunderstorm and lightning is likely in Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during next five days.

Isolated heavy rainfall is likely in Konkan, Goa, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Gujarat during the next five days and Madhya Maharashtra till June 25.

There is now just a two per cent deficiency in rainfall in the country since June 1, but 33% in central India, 17% in northwest India and 16% in peninsular India . There has been 43% excess rainfall in east and northeast India.

Palawat said they were expecting extremely heavy rain in Assam and Meghalaya to reduce gradually. “But it will not be dry. The past few days of extreme rain and flooding in Assam and Bangladesh are a result of southwesterly winds transporting a lot of moisture to the region. As a result of climate change also, the frequency of extreme rains followed by long dry spells is expected.”

At least 12 northeastern and northern districts in Bangladesh are facing floods with major rivers such as the Brahmaputra, Jamuna, Surma, and the Kushiyara flowing above their danger marks at 18 points.

Meghalaya’s Mawsynram, the wettest place in India, recorded 100.36 cm rain in 24 hours till 8.30 am on Friday, the highest ever in a day in June.

Cherrapunji in Meghalaya’s East Khasi Hills district recorded 97 cm rainfall over 24 hours on Friday last, the third-highest quantum of rainfall recorded there in the last 122 years. The highest rainfall of 156.3 cm was recorded in Cherrapunji on June 16, 1995.

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll said strong monsoon winds in the Bay of Bengal can carry a lot more moisture than ever in response to global warming. “A response to rising temperatures is the overall increase in moisture levels in the atmosphere. This is because warmer air holds more moisture, and that too for a longer time. Hence, the large amount of rainfall that we see now might be a climate change impact.”