'If new variants are more infectious...': Virologist Gagandeep Kang on Covid 3rd wave threat

Transmission of the infection has to be stopped as the virus is getting chances to replicate and thus increasing the chance of the emergence of a new variant, Dr Gagandeep Kang explained.

Amid apprehension of a fresh wave of the Covid-19 pandemic -- triggered by scientific projections and the sudden increase in the number of daily infections -- India's top virologist Dr Gagandeep Kang said there are multiple possibilities as a fresh wave will depend on several things, including a new variant, or a new strain of the variant. In every case, the scenario will be different, the virologist said to news agency ANI.

Dr Gagandeep Kang said it is difficult to predict Covid-19 waves as they are dependant on many factors. (PTI)

Variant and third wave

If the new wave is driven by new variants, it will be difficult to predict the number of cases, Dr Kang said. Many experts have earlier said that Covid's third wave is unlikely to be as severe as that of the first and the second as the vaccine coverage will play a significant role.

"If it's driven by strains then we know numbers are likely to be low," Dr Kang said adding that if the new variants are more infectious, then cases can increase at the same pace as the first wave.

Seasonal element and third wave

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is somewhat dependent on the environment, the virologist said. "We know that this is a virus that is dependent on the environment and I think what we are seeing from certain other parts of the world is that there may be some seasonal elements to this virus. We have to get through another winter and see that how that plays out, in determining how much we see and when," Dr Kang said.

Transmission of disease and third wave

Explaining how replication of the virus is linked with the emergence of a new variant and thereby responsible for a new wave, Dr Kang said as long as the virus is replicating, the chances of a new variant emerging remain high. To stop the virus from replication, the transmission of the infection has to be stopped as replication takes place in the human host.

"..if we want to prevent the emergence of a new variant, we also have to prevent transmission of the disease because any amount of replication will continue to be a threat. That is what we are seeing with delta. Newer variants are able to infect people who have been vaccinated," Dr Kang said.

Calling for layered intervention, which involves many aspects, the virologist said that apart from Covid-appropriate behaviour, one should ensure staying at fully ventilated places, avoiding crowded areas etc.

(With ANI inputs)