Northeast monsoon to bring heavy rain in south India for next 4-5 days
The southwest monsoon ended with rainfall of 108% of the long period average, calculated for the period between 1971 to 202
NEW DELHI: The northeast monsoon has set in with a bang over South Peninsular India, there has been widespread, heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Telangana , and heavy rainfall is likely to continue over parts of south Peninsular India for the next four to five days due to formation of consecutive low-pressure systems over Bay of Bengal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned.
The southwest monsoon has retreated from the entire country on October 15. Simultaneously, the northeast monsoon, which brings rain to Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala between October and December set in over the southeast peninsular India (on the same day). The normal date for onset of northeast monsoon is October 20.
This year, the northeast monsoon has arrived in the middle of an uncharacteristically wet October which has seen 24.6% excess rainfall across peninsular India. During the past 15 days, Tamil Nadu has recorded 82% excess rain; Karnataka 46%; and Andhra Pradesh, 38%. With the weather system extremely active
The southwest monsoon ended with rainfall of 108% of the long period average, calculated for the period between 1971 to 2020. IMD forecast on October 2 that most parts of the country will record above normal rainfall in October, and that day and night temperatures will likely be above normal. Interestingly, peninsular India also recorded good rainfall during the southwest monsoon — a 14% excess.
The depression that formed on Wednesday over west-central and adjoining Bay of Bengal crossed the north Tamil Nadu - South Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore on Thursday. It weakened into a well marked low pressure area and lay over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north coastal Tamil Nadu. Before the depression over Bay of Bengal, there was a depression over the Central Arabian Sea crossed the Oman coast around midnight of October 15.
A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation is very likely to form over the north Andaman Sea around October 20. Under its influence, a low pressure area may form over central Bay of Bengal around October 22, move northwestwards and intensify.
“Considering various environmental conditions and model guidance, it is inferred that, there is high probability of cyclogenesis (formation of depression) over central Bay of Bengal during October 23 to 24. The existing cyclonic circulation over North Lakshadweep is likely to move west-northwestwards during the next 3-5 days,” IMD said.
“The low-pressure area, likely to develop over central Bay of Bengal, is expected to intensify further. But it is difficult to tell which region it will impact the most,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.