Number Theory: Are state poll verdicts becoming clearer now?

Twenty-seven of 30 state elections (90%) from 2019 to 2023 ended in a clear verdict

Most exit polls suggested a close fight in the recently concluded state elections in five states. When votes were counted on December 3, the verdict turned out to be a clear majority for the winner in all five states.

There has been no change since 1978 in the probability of a clear verdict in elections to 10 assemblies (Agencies)

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In fact, all state elections in past two years except Meghalaya have thrown up a clear verdict. Is what happened this year a break from past trends or was this always the case? Here are four charts that answer this question.

On the whole, a clear verdict is the norm, not the exception

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  On the whole, a clear verdict is the norm, not the exception

  Tracking the trend in election verdicts over time is not easy. The Election Commission of India (ECI) only publishes results for individual parties whereas parties regularly fight elections in (pre-poll) alliances. Political scientist Milan Vaishnav has built a database of pre-poll alliances in all states for 248 state elections since 1978. HT used this database as the basis of its analysis, extending it to 2023 for this analysis. This data shows that of the 280 state elections from 1978 to 2023, 210 (75%) have ended in a clear majority. Of these 210 elections, 133 were won by a party fighting the election alone and 77 by pre-poll alliances. This means that clear verdicts are the norm, not an exception in state elections.
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  However, this norm has shown significant variation over time

  To be sure, the probability of a clear verdict has not always been the same. HT calculated the share of election verdicts that have ended in a clear verdict for rolling five-year periods since 1978, such as 1978-82, 1979-83, 1980-84, etc. This shows a rise and fall around 1987 in the 1980s, followed by a plateau in the 1990s, and a further decline in the 2000s before there is a sharp rise from the five years ending in 2013. These trends roughly coincide with Congress’s successes in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi’s assassination; followed by unclear verdicts in state elections that required post-poll alliances such as between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh post-1996 assembly elections; and finally the BJP emerging a dominant party under the leadership of Narendra Modi. This data also confirms that the five-year period ending in 2023 has been exceptional for clear verdicts in state elections. Twenty-seven of 30 state elections (90%) from 2019 to 2023 ended in a clear verdict. To be sure, factors such as elections being advanced or the creation of new states can also affect this number. For example, the three five-year periods that ended in 1987, 2015, and 2016 had a slightly smaller proportion of clear verdicts (88%) than 2019-2023 (90%). However, the three periods also had 32 state elections each compared to 30 state elections held during 2019-2023.
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  Some states regularly give clear verdicts and others rarely give clear verdicts

  This is an important aspect of understanding the overall long-term trend of clear verdicts. There has been no change since 1978 in the probability of a clear verdict in elections to 9 legislative assemblies. This is because elections to these assemblies have either always given clear verdicts or never given clear verdicts since 1978. The assemblies that have always given clear verdicts are those of Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Punjab, Puducherry, and the former Union territory of Goa, Daman & Diu. On the other hand, Meghalaya has never given a clear verdict since 1978.
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  Which states have caused the recent surge in clear verdicts?

  Clearly, the 9 states and UTs listed above have no role to play in the recent uptick in clear verdicts. Are there any particular states where verdicts are clearer more often now compared to the 2000-2010 period? Yes, there are 11 such states. These are Odisha, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Goa, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Nagaland, and, Manipur. The most dramatic change was in Jharkhand, where no elections ended in a clear verdict in the 2000-2010 period and all elections gave clear verdicts in the 2011-2023 period. Karnataka and Nagaland, similarly, did not have any clear verdict in 2000-2010 and gave clear verdicts in two of three elections held during 2011-2023. Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu also gave clear verdicts in all three elections in 2011-2023 compared to just one of two elections in 2001-2010. The trend reversed compared to 2000-2010 in only Madhya Pradesh as it gave one unclear verdict in 2011-2023 compared to all clear verdicts in 2000-2010. In the remaining states, the trend did not change between these two periods.