Number Theory: What we know and what we don't about electoral bonds

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On Monday, the Supreme Court again pulled up the State Bank of India (SBI), telling India’s largest public sector bank to stop being “selective” and disclose the unique serial number associated with each electoral bond (EB) and all other information the bank possesses by March 21.

The Supreme Court has told SBI to and disclose the unique serial number associated with each electoral bond (EB) and all other information the bank possesses by March 21. (Reuters File)

Such a move potentially enables drawing clear correlation between bond beneficiaries and donors. But till then, here’s a reckoner of what we know about the electoral bonds so far, and just as importantly, what we don’t.

What we know: The bonds that have been purchased and redeemed, year by year

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  What we know: The bonds that have been purchased and redeemed, year by year

  The total amount of bonds purchased, redeemed, and lapsed is known for each fiscal year completely. In all, electoral bonds worth ₹16,518 crore have been purchased since the scheme was launched in 2018. Of this ₹4,363 crore worth of bonds were purchased between March 1, 2018 and April 11, 2019; and ₹12,156 crore worth of bonds were purchased between April 12, 2019 and Jan 11, 2024. The data revealed by SBI and published by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on March 14 was for this second period. Looking at the purchases by fiscal year, the amount was low in FY 2017-18 because the first bond sales started only on March 1, 2018, the last month of the fiscal. Similarly, FY 2020-21 had only two sale windows (one in October 2020 and another in January 2021), which led to a smaller amount being purchased. Higher amounts were purchased in FY 2019-20 and FY 2023-24 because the Lok Sabha elections were held in April -May 2019 and are set to begin on April 19, 2024. Only 0.16% ( ₹26 crore) of purchased bonds were not redeemed by any party and thus transferred to the Prime Minister’s National Relief Fund (PMNRF).
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  What we know: The total amount redeemed by each party

  We also know which party redeemed precisely what amount of bonds. The data shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was the biggest recipient of electoral bond funds since the scheme began in 2018 – accounting for 50% of the total amount redeemed. The BJP is followed by the Congress (12%), the Trinamool Congress (10%), Telangana (or Bharat) Rashtra Samithi (9%), and Biju Janata Dal (6%). All other parties each have redeemed less than 5% of the total redeemed amount.
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  What we know to a good degree: Who purchased these bonds, and for how much

  ECI data releases on March 14 and March 17 allow us to track buyers of 74% of the value of all bonds purchased. This accounts for ₹12,239 crore of the total ₹16,518 crore of bonds purchased since 2018 -- including purchasers who bought bonds worth ₹12,156 crore from April 12, 2019, to January 11, 2024, and those who bought bonds worth ₹84 crore out of ₹4,363 prior to April 12, 2019. The names of this second group were disclosed by political parties to ECI in sealed covers, the contents of which were made public on March 17. The remaining ₹4,279 crore worth of bonds, whose buyers are not known, were bought before April 12, 2019. Therefore, when SBI submits serial number data to ECI on March 21, the details for this amount (26% of all purchases) will still remain unknown.
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  What we know: When parties got these donations

  The two tranches of data released by ECI on March 14 and March 17 also allow us to track redemptions by parties by fiscal year. The data shows that the BJP is not only the biggest recipient of bond donations overall, but also in each fiscal year except 2020-21. However, the relative importance of the BJP in bond donations with respect to other parties has decreased over time, while that of others such as the TMC or the BRS (earlier TRS) has increased. As HT reported on March 16, this shows that donations are not always linked to the election cycle where a party is relevant.
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  What we don’t know: The donor-redeemer link in more than 95% of bonds redeemed

  While the ECI data release on March 17 allows one to match donors to parties they donated to, at ₹801 crore this is a very small fraction (4.9%) of the total amount redeemed by parties. For five individual parties that received a small share of bond donations – the DMK, AIADMK, JD(S), JKNC, and MGP – almost complete details of donors can now be deduced. For another seven parties, some details of donors are available. SBI’s release of more detailed data on bonds on March 21 can shed light on donors for around three-fourths of the amount redeemed by different parties in total.