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INDIA bloc ruptures, yet Rahul makes ‘only Congress’ claim: What next for Oppn in fight against Modi | Explained
Rahul put out video at peak of political activity in Tamil Nadu in the South, while elections are due in the prime northern state of Uttar Pradesh in 10 months.
Rahul Gandhi posted a short video clip on his X handle on Friday evening with a mega claim that seemed to address many battles at once.
It came at the peak of seismic political activity in Tamil Nadu in the South, while elections are due in the main northern state of Uttar Pradesh in 10 months. And the national contest looks tougher than ever with Narendra Modi’s regime freshly bolstered after winning Bengal.
“Likh kar le lo,” take it in writing, said the Congress leader in his X post in Hindi, “No other party can defeat the BJP and Narendra Modi. Only the Congress can.”
Around the same time, actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay walked into the Lok Bhavan in Chennai, armed with letters of support from the Congress and other parties, to claim the majority required to form a government in Tamil Nadu.
The Congress’s letter helped Vijay's numbers a bit, after he fell just short of majority in the May 4 results. Thatletter meant something else, much bigger, too.
It was the Congress's “likh ke”, in-writing break away from the DMK, one of its most trusted allies at the national level and a senior partner in the state.
“You will see, all the other parties will not be able to stand in front of them (RSS and BJP),” Rahul said in his X video, “And in the end only the Congress party will stand; and the Congress party will defeat them.”
This begets a simple question. Does this mean the end of the opposition INDIA bloc that’s supposed to be the BJP's main rival at the Centre?
Rahul’s video — with the claim that the Congress is the real David against BJP’s alleged Goliath — is one of the signs of the times. There are many others.
Also read | The INDIA bloc is imploding: HT Editorial
Bloc is cracking
The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance — INDIA bloc — was formed in mid-2023 by over two dozen opposition parties united by a common purpose: defeating the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha fight. It could not do that, but managed to bring down Modi's numbers.
Now, two years into Modi's third term as PM, the coalition appears to be fraying after the April-May assembly elections.
The most visible rupture is between the Congress and the DMK. For nearly two decades, the two parties were together in Tamil Nadu and at the national level, being among the loudest voices of the alliance.
When MK Stalin took over the DMK and Rahul Gandhi consolidated his hold over the Congress, they projected a personal camaraderie. Stalin even declared Rahul the alliance's prime ministerial candidate when others hesitated in 2024. Behind closed doors, though, the relationship was under some strain, reports now say. Congress had grown resentful that the DMK steadily reduced its seat allocation with each passing election.
When the Tamil Nadu results handed Vijay's TVK 108 seats — with the DMK-led alliance SPA and the AIADMK-BJP's NDA both far behind — the Congress made its calculation quickly. It chose a future with the winner, framing it as a move to keep a “communal” BJP and its allies out of power.
The DMK legislature party passed a formal resolution calling this a "major betrayal”, noting that Congress had received one Rajya Sabha seat and 28 assembly constituencies to fight under the DMK alliance.
Senior DMK leader TKS Elangovan did not care for diplomatic language.
"INDIA bloc is gone," he said, “We will reframe the alliance.”
DMK MP K Kanimozhi took the rupture to Parliament, writing to the Lok Sabha speaker that her party's MPs be re-seated, away from the benches of the main Opposition party Congress.
Akhilesh's dig, Mamata a ‘free bird’, and Vijay's ‘enemy’ framing
Discomfort over the Congress’s move in the South spread quickly to other INDIA bloc members.
Samajwadi Party chief and former UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, who had just met both Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata and MK Stalin in Chennai, posted photos with both leaders on X with a pointed caption: “We are not the ones who abandon allies in difficult times.” Kanimozhi responded with thanks to him.
But Mamata Banerjee's situation adds its own complexity to this picture. The BJP swept the state of West Bengal with 202 seats — a two-thirds majority — ending her three-term reign of 15 years. She has alleged the mandate was looted via the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls.
In defeat, Mamata seemed rather conciliatory towards the INDIA bloc, welcoming support from the Congress, SP, AAP, and others. She said Sonia Gandhi and Rahul had called her, among others. She called herself a “free bird” who could now take on Modi.
Notably, Rahul Gandhi had, during the Bengal campaign where the Congress fought on its own, directly accused Mamata of creating conditions favourable to the BJP.
But after the poll results, he wrote in X: “Some in the Congress, and others, are gloating about TMC’s loss. They need to understand this clearly — the theft of Assam and Bengal’s mandate is a big step forward by the BJP in its mission to destroy Indian democracy. Put petty politics aside. This is not about one party or another. This is about India.”
The Congress is not a major player in Bengal anyway. And the Congress-TMC love-hate dichotomy is not new. Mamata's TMC was not part of the INDIA bloc in Bengal in the 2024 LS elections too; it has since supported Rahul Gandhi-led opposition on major issues in Parliament.
“Whatever happens, it is a fight of ideologies,” Rahul said in his latest video of Friday night, “And there are only two ideologies fighting in this country: One is of RSS (the parent body of BJP), that of hatred and division; and the other is of the Congress, of love, of unity.”
TVK's Vijay, Christian by faith and now the most popular leader of a Hindu-majority state, had also termed the Hindutva-driven BJP an “ideological enemy” during his campaign. The DMK, he said, was a “political enemy”.
Rahul's claim, regional challenges
Against this backdrop, comes Rahul Gandhi's video. “You remember what I am saying; Congress will defeat Narendra Modi, Amit Shah. Congress will defeat the BJP,” he added.
It is, of course, a rallying call for party cadres, as it came in Gurugram in Haryana, a state where the Congress lost to the BJP soon after improving its tally in the Lok Sabha election of 2024. The party has been battling major factionalism in Haryana for years now.
But when his claim is seen alongside the events of this week across India, it points to a fundamental friction within the INDIA bloc.
The bloc's powerful regional anchors — the TMC in Bengal and the DMK in Tamil Nadu — have both been weakened or displaced in their own backyards this week. Their Lok Sabha numbers remain intact, for now.
The Congress lost badly in Assam, nor could it dent the BJP-led NDA in Puducherry. Its consolation came from another southern state, Kerala, where it has returned to power defeating the Left which is otherwise part of the INDIA bloc nationally.
Ironies within the umbrella coalition are firmly in focus — some new, some old. The BJP has piled on, predictably; spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla called the Tamil Nadu DMK-Congress rift the "last rites" of the INDIA bloc.
What next?
The next big test for the bloc, as it remains, is Uttar Pradesh, where Akhilesh's SP and Rahul's Congress had together won more seats than an entrenched BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Rahul has since been buoyed by that.
As of this week, here's where the INDIA bloc stands in five lines:
- Rahul Gandhi is ready to give it in writing that only the Congress can and will defeat the BJP.
- Akhilesh, whose SP is the senior partner in UP, has taunted the Congress as an unreliable ally.
- Mamata, however, has pledged to a larger fight now against Modi after her defeat in Bengal.
- The DMK in Tamil Nadu says the INDIA bloc is gone altogether.
- And Vijay, who has replaced DMK, has shown signs of being firmly in the anti-BJP camp. (At one point two decades ago, Vijay was keen to even join the Congress. But that's another story.)
There seem to be ruptures in the INDIA bloc, sure; but realignment may just be the right word, for now, to describe what's happening in the Opposition camp.
