Maharashtra political crisis: Supreme Court's order marks new turn in state’s saga

The Supreme Court's verdict in the Shiv Sena rebellion case marks a new turn in the political saga.

The Supreme Court’s verdict on Thursday brings the curtains down, at least for now, on a saga that began in June last year when a group of Shiv Sena lawmakers led by Eknath Shinde went incommunicado.

Supreme Court on Thursday delivered verdict in the Eknath Shinde vs Uddhav Thackeraty case.

The days since have seen the dramatic collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government, more rebels joining Shinde and the Election Commission according the Sena name and symbol to Shinde. Thursday marked a new twist. Here is how it may affect the primary players in Maharashtra’s turbulent politics.

Eknath Shinde

Even though the Supreme Court did not validate Eknath Shinde’s rebellion and Uddhav Thackeray’s petition for his party name and symbol is still under review, Shinde, 59, has undoubtedly emerged stronger after Thursday’s verdict. It would not be surprising if more members of Shiv Sena (UBT) make their way towards his party. Also, after the verdict, the Sena UBT’s allegation that his government is “illegal” stands nullified.

The decision on disqualification of 16 MLAs including him now rests with Speaker Rahul Narwekar which buys Shinde time. He will also find comfort in his deputy Devendra Fadnavis’s announcement that the next elections will be fought under Shinde’s leadership. In the long term though there are two issues: does he have the ability to transfer the Shiv Sena’s traditional vote to his combine with the BJP, and second, now that the original Shiv Sena has been split and weakened, will a resurgent BJP let him flourish?

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Uddhav Thackeray

The Supreme Court’s decision to refer the disqualification of 16 rebel MLAs including Eknath Shinde to speaker Narwekar and its refusal to reinstate Thackeray as CM is a setback. However, he can take comfort from the fact that the top court came down strongly on then governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari, saying he had erred in holding the floor test. The court also termed Narwekar’s decision to appoint Shinde nominee, Bharat Ghogawala as whip to be illegal. These observations support Thackeray’s case against the ruling alliance. He can go to his electorate saying he has been wronged by the BJP and Shinde. He will use that narrative to rouse his traditional “Marathi Manoos” vote bank. The verdict however also means that his dependence on the Maha Vikas Aghadi will only grow and he may well have to resign himself to playing second fiddle to the Congress-NCP combine.

Devendra Fadnavis

The verdict is a win for deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis who calls the shots in Maharashtra BJP and is believed to have masterminded the split in the Shiv Sena. The fall of the incumbent government would have been a political setback for him. A weakened Uddhav Thackeray also means that the BJP has a real shot at winning control of BMC, Asia’s richest municipal corporation. The last time, the BJP had fallen short of just one seat. A win there would boost Fadnavis’s national standing.

However, with Shinde’s ability to get the traditional Shiv Sena votes still in question, Fadnavis will need to work much harder for electoral success. The verdict also, at least temporarily, puts paid to his plans to poach key NCP leaders including Ajit Pawar.

MVA

The verdict nipped in the bud any hopes the MVA may have had of returning to power immediately. Uddhav Thackeray’s decision to resign without consulting his coalition partners, already a sore point now gets highlighted by the the top court’s observations.

With Fadnavis buoyed by the verdict, the MVA’s chances at winning the BMC also just got harder. However, if the coalition sticks together and plays to its strength, as it did during the Kasba bypoll, they can actually shore up their support base. The verdict could make another Shinde-type rebellion difficult in the future as the court has made it clear that a political party is bigger than its legislative unit. This may come as a relief, especially for the NCP.