Third Covid wave in Mumbai likely to be less deadly than second: Study
- The group of scientists at Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) said that authorities have to be aware of reinfections as those who contracted the virus during the first wave may be vulnerable
Mumbai is unlikely to experience the peak of the possible third wave of coronavirus pandemic as massive as one experienced during the second wave because 80 per cent of the city’s total population has possibly been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, scientists at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) projected, according to a report.
Sandeep Juneja, the TIFR study’s main author and the dean of its school of technology and computer science, said that reinfections will “hold the key in the third wave”, according to the Times of India.
The study said that those who contracted the coronavirus during the first wave last year could again be vulnerable due to declining levels of antibody. Therefore, looking out for and monitoring cases of reinfection would help authorities combat the possible third wave efficiently. The probable third wave can also be checked if 20 per cent of Mumbaikars, who are yet to be down with Covid-19, are vaccinated soon, the report cited Juneja as saying.
The TIFR study also pointed out, the report said, that of 80 per cent who have recovered, 10 per cent are vulnerable to reinfections, and if infected, they can either follow the same progression as the first time or possess a new Covid-19 variant that is 50 per cent more virulent and 50% more infectious than the Delta variant.
The group of TIFR scientists highlighted that the third wave would only barely be detected in September if four factors match – reinfections are mild, absence of any dangerous variant, coverage of Covid-19 vaccination is widespread in the preceding months of July and August, and vaccines are 75-95 per cent effective.
A recent ward-wise serosurvey conducted by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) revealed that over 50 per cent of Mumbaikars aged between 1-18 years have antibodies against the coronavirus. According to the data provided by the civic body, the seropositivity rate between the 5-9 age group is 47.33 per cent, and between the 1-4 age group is 51.04 per cent. Teenagers between 15-18 years have a seropositivity rate of 51.39 per cent, while the highest positivity at 53.43 per cent was noticed in the 10-14 age group.
Mumbai on Monday reported as many as 608 fresh cases, taking the city’s overall case count to 720,964, the official BMC data showed. With 714 new recoveries, the total number of recoveries has reached 694,796, the data added.