A giant leap, but how?

On September 29, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that India would produce 470,000 MW from nuclear energy by 2050, writes Samrat.

On September 29, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that India would produce 470,000 MW from nuclear energy by 2050. At present, the country produces about 4,000 MW from N-sources, which is less than 3 per cent of the country’s power.

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The leap from 4,000 to 470,000 MW is a huge one. For that matter, even the country’s declared intention of generating 20,000 MW from N-sources by 2020 is ambitious. The success of the PM’s ‘nuclear renaissance’ dream is far from certain. In the end, it is more likely that India’s energy future will be decided by less conspicuous people, not politicians.

The first among them are the scientists who are tasked with achieving what no other country has: a three-stage nuclear cycle. This means starting with N-reactors that use uranium as fuel, and ending with reactors that use mainly thorium as fuel.

It sounds like a good idea, since India has about a quarter of all the thorium in the world. The technology to do this is being developed – reportedly with some success — by Indian scientists.

Till then, uranium remains central. Even if it works, uranium still remains critical — it needs uranium to get the thorium cycle started. The problem is, India has almost no uranium. Until recently, its existing reactors were operating at around 50 per cent of full capacity due to fuel shortages.

Now, four new reactor units are scheduled to begin operations by the end of the year. The lifting of the N-embargo means we can consider importing for now. However, the Indo-US N-deal has still not become fully operational. If it gets linked to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the imports could hit roadblocks. Meanwhile, domestic production of uranium remains mired in difficulties. The few proven reserves are of poor quality and located in very remote areas. And people in all those areas are up in arms against mining.

The best quality uranium in the country discovered so far is in the West Khasi Hills district of Meghalaya. This deposit was found in 1984. Now, 25 years on, Meghalaya has finally decided to allow pre-project development in the area. The protests from a coalition of groups that fear the health and environment impact of the mining have started.

Unless people’s fears are addressed, these will grow. The Indian-State, never popular with those margins, may succeed in forcing its way in, but might find its nuclear fuel coming at the cost of internal insecurity.

There is no doubt the country needs to mine its own, domestic sources of uranium for security reasons. Is consensus impossible?

More crucially, there is no doubt that the country needs energy. But is so much dependence on nuclear energy necessary?