E-Paper
Congress retains edge
Rajasthan is heading for one of its closest electoral battles though ruling party still retains a distinct edge. Vasundhara Raje has 3 to 5 per cent anti-incumbency vote for starters.
Rajasthan is heading for one of its closest electoral battles though the ruling party still retains a distinct edge. Out of at least 125 'serious' rebels and independents in 200-seat Assembly, only 20 to 25 are likely to win, but a majority of them is certain to spoil the scene for official candidates of both Congress and the BJP.
BJP leader Vasundhara Raje has three to five per cent anti-incumbency vote for starters. Raje could have precipitated this hostility even better if she had fielded fresh candidates instead of old fogies and sangh parivar diehards. The party is counting on the upper caste-OBC combination and a good chunk of Jat votes. BJP has the support of government employees even though they are divided on caste lines. It is being hurt by pro-upper caste reservation Social Justice Front (SJF), led by its former veterans.
Sensing a close contest, BJP's strategists brought in their best crowd pullers including Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and their hindutwa mascot, Narender Modi. VHP's Praveenbhai Togadia and his ilk from Bajarang Dal and Shiv Sena are visiting in strength. The latest round of "trishul diksha" was conducted on Saturdayat Rajasthan- Gujarat border.
The BJP is set to more than double its tally of 33 MLAs. It is hitting Congress hardest in its bastions of Mewar (Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Banswara, Dungarpur, Rajsamand and Bhilwara) and Marwar (Jodhpur, Barmer, Jaisalmer, Jalore, Pali, Sirohi and Nagaur). It is also gaining in Shekhawati (Jhunjhunu and Sikar).
The Congress is counting on the minorities, dalits and a section of OBCs such as Malis and Gujjars. Rajasthan's Jats are tilting towards the BJP but Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is confident of getting their support wherever the Congress' Jat candidate beats his BJP rival in individual clout.
Congress' strength is its pro-development image. Gehlot may neutralize much of anti-incumbency feeling by his good track record of managing drought relief operations. Construction of roads and its successful mid day meal scheme are factors, which would benefit the Congress almost everywhere. This may ensure a better vote percentage for the ruling party despite anti-incumbency losses.
The Congress has an edge in the BJP stronghold of Hadauthi (Kota, Bundi and Jhalawar) but it will concede seats in Ajmer, Bikaner and Jaipur divisions. Congress is still likely to emerge as the single largest party because its strength of 153 leaves enough scope for losses. The Congress has suffered because it lacked the nerve to replace tainted ministers and MLAs.
The Congress has about 70 while the BJP has over 50 rebel candidates. INLD and SJF have offered their platform to stronger rebels who are, this time, cutting both ways instead of just harming their rivals.
