Demographic designs

There were 6.5 bn of us around to celebrate World Population Day, with figure rising at rates unprecedented prior to 20th century.

How should one react to the fact that a fifth of all humans to have lived in the last 6,000 years are alive today? There were 6.5 billion of us around to celebrate World Population Day on Tuesday, with the figure rising at rates unprecedented prior to the 20th century. The glass may be half-full or half-empty, depending not only on your ideological position but also on which part of the globe you inhabit.

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Unlike what Malthusian doomsayers may argue, a high population figure in itself is not a problem. Japan succeeded the second half of the 20th century in converting its high population density into an asset. Now, it is battling an extremely low population growth rate, fuelling worries about how its relatively low proportion of working-age population will support a vast majority of aged dependents. The situation in many other developed economies is similar, inducing their governments to offer lucrative incentives for people opting to have children. Counter-intuitively, it would appear people want fewer children when they are richer and can provide for them. The better a society’s gender empowerment record, the lower its population growth rate. Take Taiwan, where nearly half the women of marriageable age are single and childless.

On the other side of the spectrum are countries like India, still trying to rein in their population growth rates and struggling to provide health, education and other facilities to their ever-swelling ranks. However, unlike China, which messed up its demographic profile with its one-child policy, India has a more balanced population composition. But today’s demographic luck of the draw will only click if India can grow fast enough to ensure it’ll be wealthy enough to support a greying population by mid-century.