Cyclone Maha to soon make landfall in Gujarat

The weather bureau on Monday announced that the cyclone (at maximum speed of 100-110 km/hour) will make a landfall between Diu and Porbandar around midnight of November 6 and early hours of November 7 as a ‘severe cyclone’.

The tropical cyclonic storm Maha could be the first intense cyclone to make landfall over Gujarat in over 12 decades in November.

Mumbai received rainfall on November 1, 2019 as a result of cyclone Maha. (Pratik Chorge/HT Photo)

The weather bureau on Monday announced that the cyclone (at maximum speed of 100-110 km/hour) will make a landfall between Diu and Porbandar around midnight of November 6 and early hours of November 7 as a ‘severe cyclone’.

This will be the first such weather system with such intensity to make a landfall over Gujarat in more than 120 years, said statistics collated by independent meteorologist Akshay Deoras, meteorologist and PhD researcher, University of Reading, UK based on data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

“The current official forecast suggests the cyclone will make a landfall in south Gujarat as a cyclonic storm. If this happens, Maha will be the first cyclonic storm in November in the satellite-era to cross Gujarat coast,” said Deoras.

Records suggest that a cyclonic storm had crossed Gujarat on November 20, 1893, but there is an uncertainty due to lack of proper observations, said Deoras. “Even if Maha weakens and makes landfall as a depression, it will still be the first depression in November in the satellite-era. Records suggest a (weather) depression to have made a landfall in the state on November 14, 1936,” he said.

Currently intensified into an ‘extremely severe cyclonic storm’, Maha is the 16th severe cyclone in 128 years (1891-2019) in the Arabian Sea in November. Data for both cyclones and severe cyclones shows Maha is the 21st such weather event since 1891.

“The frequency and number of cyclones have increased at an alarming pace in the Arabian Sea owing to rising sea surface temperatures and global warming as one of the main factors. The overall impact of climate change resulting in such cyclones still has to be studied for further conclusions,” said Anupam Kashyapi, head of weather, IMD Pune, adding that another cyclone (Bulbul) is developing over the Bay of Bengal in the coming week (around November 8-10), which is likely to affect the east coast.

CYCLONE DATA

In Bay of Bengal, there have been 49 cyclonic storms while 121 cyclonic and severe cyclonic storms from 1891 to 2019.

The data also shows that there have been five cyclones in a 50-year period between 1891 and 1941, another five between 1941 and 1991 while six have been reported over a 28-year period (1991-2019). Similarly, there have been three cyclones plus severe cyclones during 1981-2000 while five during 2001-2019.

There have been 522 cyclones in the Bay of Bengal between 1891 and 2019 (including cyclonic storms Pabuk and Fani this year) while 130 have been reported in Arabian Sea (including cyclones Vayu, Hikka, Kyarr, and Maha this year), the compilation said.