IMD downgrades yellow alert for Mumbai, predicts moderate showers
Independent meteorologists, however, said an increase in rain activity was expected in Mumbai, but unlikely to cause any inconvenience to commuters or waterlogging.
A day after issuing a yellow alert for heavy rain in isolated areas for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), the weather bureau on Thursday downgraded its warning, predicting only light to moderate showers from Friday to Monday.
While the city could witness occasional intense rain spells between Thursday night and Friday morning, light to moderate thundershowers are expected throughout Friday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast said.
Independent meteorologists, however, said an increase in rain activity was expected, but unlikely to cause any inconvenience to commuters or waterlogging.
Meanwhile on Thursday morning, residents in the suburbs woke up to moderate thundershowers, even as light showers were reported from remaining parts of the city. The Santacruz weather observatory, representative of the suburbs and Mumbai, recorded 49mm of rain between 5.30am and 8.30am, while 0.2mm rain was recorded in Colaba, representative of south Mumbai. Parts of eastern suburbs recorded moderate showers, with Vidyavihar and Chembur receiving 45.8mm and 34.6mm rainfall. In the western suburbs, the rainfall ranged between 25mm and 33m for most locations, with Oshiwara recording the heaviest rainfall at 33mm. In the island city, Dadar and Worli recorded 33.2mm and 32.8mm of rainfall between 5.30am and 8.30am. Thane and Navi Mumbai recorded isolated moderate to heavy rain since Wednesday.
IMD classifies 2.5mm to 15.5mm as light rain, 15.6mm to 64.4mm as moderate rain and 64.5mm to 115.5mm as heavy rain.
“Owing to a lack of strong weather system, monsoon conditions are not likely to be as active as expected along the north Konkan coast, and the rain activity is expected to shift towards interior Maharashtra and along south Konkan,” said an IMD official.
Professor Sridhar Balasubramanian, department of mechanical engineering and IDP Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay, said, “Due to an offshore trough created by an Arabian Sea system, the west coast is very likely to receive moderate to heavy rain between Friday and Sunday. Mumbai may witness some heavy rain (70-80mm over 24 hours), mostly on Sunday.”
Owing to an increase in moisture incursions over the city, the frequency of showers is expected to increase over the weekend, said Akshay Deoras, independent meteorologist and PhD researcher at the University of Reading, United Kingdom. “It will be light rain with few moderate spells towards the suburbs,” he said.
Meanwhile, both the meteorologists said that the city was unlikely to receive any more major heavy rain spells till the end of the month.
“No significant weather systems would lead to weak monsoon winds and less moisture,” said Deoras.
Balasubramanian added that subdued rain activity till the end of the month may be followed by heavy rainfall during August first week, if a weather system develops in the Bay of Bengal.
Mumbai received its July rainfall target on the 15th of the month, and recorded 1,300mm rainfall (154% excess) until Thursday, against the target of 840.7mm. The city received 75% of its seasonal rainfall target until now over 53 days.