Lockdown will be effective only with more testing: IIT-Bombay study

Lockdown, as a measure to curb the Covid-19 spread, will be effective only if it is implemented along with an increased rate of testing, tracing and isolation, a

Lockdown, as a measure to curb the Covid-19 spread, will be effective only if it is implemented along with an increased rate of testing, tracing and isolation, a multi-model analysis of infectious diseases by researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay (IIT-B) has revealed. The models also suggested that the number of coronavirus cases will soar after the lockdown is lifted.

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“Once the lockdown is lifted, the numbers are bound to increase, according to our models. However, the models also showed that lockdown alone will not help in curbing the infection. We need to test aggressively and isolate those infected, especially because there are many asymptomatic cases,” said one of the researchers, professor Subimal Ghosh, from the civil engineering department.

The analysis released on Wednesday is an IIT-Bombay-Ministry of Human Resource Development (HRD), initiative in collaboration with IIT-Gandhinagar, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and Visva-Bharati University in West Bengal.

As a part of the analysis, the teams used three models for making epidemiological predictions for the number of incidences of the virus for different time periods under different circumstances. While the system dynamics model is a mathematical modelling of complex scenarios, the X-SEAIPR model is a technique to simplify the mathematical modelling of infectious disease and the statistical model makes assumptions to predict scenarios. While the first two models suggest a spike in the number of cases once the lockdown is lifted, the third model suggests a steady increase in the number of infections after lockdown.

Further, a risk analysis of the existing cases shows that some parts of the country are at more risk than others. This means that though the number of cases are low in a state, the population could be more vulnerable based on the social indicators of the place. For instance, Kerala had the highest number of cases at one point, but due to better social conditions, the state could achieve the highest control over the number of infections among the other states.

IIT-B’s finding corroborates the need for increased testing as stated earlier by the World Health Organization. Similar findings were released on Tuesday by the Indian Scientists’ Response to Covid-19, a voluntary group of more than 400 scientists, who made the first India-specific epidemiological model. These scientists also recommended that extensive testing, quarantining and continued social distancing, and not a lockdown alone, are the most effective strategies to contain the outbreak in India.