Maharashtra Assembly Election 2019: It’s advantage BJP in the north

After sweeping all six Lok Sabha seats from north Maharashtra in May, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena look poised to retain the advantage in the region in the Assembly polls.

After sweeping all six Lok Sabha seats from north Maharashtra in May, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena look poised to retain the advantage in the region in the Assembly polls.

The rivalry within the saffron allies has led to several rebel candidates, which may prove to be the swing factor in this region. (PTI Photo)

The BJP is best placed vis-a-vis all the main parties, including its ally, Sena, in the region that votes in 35 legislators. The party has expanded its base here in the past five years, winning nearly all major civic and council polls held in 2017 and 2018. Currently, Nasik, Dhule, Jalgaon civic corporations are under the BJP.

Like in the rest of the state, the BJP has also engineered defections that have left the Congress nearly leaderless in its former bastion. The NCP which had presence in some areas from day one has been handicapped, given its tallest leader from the region, Chhagan Bhujbal, was out of the reckoning for at least two years, when he was imprisoned in the Maharashtra Sadan scam. The NCP also suffered a setback ahead of the 2014 polls, when the BJP inducted one of its senior tribal leaders, Dr Vijay Gavit.

While the BJP and Sena are contesting the polls together, the latter feels it has been shortchanged, as it did not get representation in any of the three seats in Nashik city. The rivalry within the saffron allies has led to several rebel candidates, which may prove to be the swing factor in this region.

A LOST OPPORTUNITY?

The weakening of the Congress in its one-time stronghold became evident, when the party’s nine-term MP from Nandurbar, Manikrao Gavit, who had been upset with the party ahead of Lok Sabha polls, shifted allegiance to the BJP, albeit through his kin. His son, Bharat, is BJP contestant from Nawapur constituency against Congress’s Shirishkumar Naik, son of party MLA Surupsingh Naik. Gavit’s daughter and sitting Congress MLA Nirmala joined the Shiv Sena and is now contesting from Igatpuri. Both these Congress seats could now go in favour of the BJP.

The BJP also cajoled Congress old-timer and education baron Amrish Patel, who held the party organisation in Dhule district, to join the fold. His trusted aide and Congress MLA Kashiram Pawara, who also joined the BJP, is the party candidate from Shirpur. In the recent Lok Sabha polls, it was evident that the Congress had retained leads in Assembly segments largely in tribal and Muslim pockets. From the Nandurbar Lok Sabha constituency, for instance, the Congress had leads in its tribal seats of Nawapur, Akkalkuwa and Sakri assembly constituencies. But the party may not be able to convert all these leads into wins.

“The Congress’s failure to keep its flock together has cost it in north Maharashtra. There is a leadership crisis and that’s evident on ground here. As opposed to this, the BJP has been strategising how to convert every lost seat into a win,” said a senior journalist from a Nashik-based newspaper.

She said unlike the Congress, the NCP, despite having a limited presence in four districts, was getting response for its rallies and meetings. “Public meetings by both NCP chief Sharad Pawar and MP Amol Kolhe are generating a buzz on ground. Bhujbal, the NCP’s tallest leader here, is likely to retain his Yevla seat despite challenges,” she said.

REBELS GALORE

What may work in favour of the Opposition is the rebellion within the saffron camp.

There are rebels in at least 10 of the 35 seats here, which may spring surprise results. In Nashik West, a Sena rebel, Vilas Shinde, is contesting against BJP’s official candidate Seema Hiray. This may indirectly help NCP candidate Apurva Hiray. In Nashik East, the NCP has given candidature to former BJP MLA Balasaheb Sanap, as the party gave ticket to Maharashtra Navnirman Sena’s Rahul Dhikale, who joined the party at the last minute.

In Nashik district’s Nandgaon, NCP’s Pankaj Bhujbal may get the benefit with a BJP rebel, Ratnakar Pawar, contesting as independent against Sena’s official candidate Suhas Kande

In Jalgaon rural, a BJP rebel is contesting against Sena senior leader Gulabrao Patil; in Muktainagar, Sena rebel Chandrakant Patil is contesting as independent against official candidate Rohini Khadse. Patil has been supported by the Opposition.

“The PM should send a clear message that rebels will not be tolerated. In a majority of our Sena seats, there are BJP rebels who are roaming in the constituency with BJP posters,” said Gulabrao Patil. A senior leader of the party from the region, Patil also took up this issue with Mahajan ahead of PM’s rally in Jalgaon on Sunday.

Mahajan admitted that Patil was upset and there was an issue of rebels in the region. “There is a BJP rebel in his constituency and hence he is upset. The BJP will ensure that the party cadre works for Patil and not the rebel. There are some rebels also from their side in other constituencies,” said Mahajan.

The minister however added, “On the whole, this will not have an impact on our performance. We will sweep north Maharashtra.’’

Not all BJP leaders are sure about the strategy. “Sanap is a Vanjari leader, who commands a certain vote bank. May be the party did a survey which said that he may not be the best candidate, but you can’t not give tickets to your old hands and borrow new leaders. Sanap’s rebellion will cost us,” said another BJP leader.

ONION FARMERS UPSET

The agrarian discontent may or may not impact polls as farmers rarely vote en bloc as farmers. Nashik district in North Maharashtra was the epicentre of two agrarian protests and strikes in the past five years, but its impact could not be felt in the last Lok Sabha polls.

“This government is against farmers. They keep people in cities happy by ensuring crop prices don’t increase. Just when there was a chance of recovering money, the central government has put ban on exports of onions,” said Ajit Darade, a farmer from Satana taluka in Nashik.

A majority of onion farmers in the region are upset with the government’s move to control prices of onions by restricting exports and announcing stocking limits for traders.

The government’s decision led the Shetkari Sanghatana, a farmers’ organisation, to announce onion satyagraha, as a result of which farmers are not selling the produce in the markets.

While the organisers have now decided to take back this satyagraha, they will continue their protest by urging farmers to vote against the government.

“Traders backed out due to pressure from the government and we are now letting farmers sell onions, especially the crop that may get spoilt. A part of our protest is to campaign among farmers and ensure they vote against this government,” said Anil Ghanwat, president of the Shetkari Sanghatana.

“The moment the onion prices could have fetched a decent price in a difficult year, the government decided to ban exports. This government has nothing to do with farmers or their issues. Do you know who the country’s agriculture minister is? Even I don’t know because he clearly does nothing. When NCP chief Sharad Pawar was the agriculture minister, everyone could go to him with problems and get them resolved,” said Bhujbal, as he addressed a rally on Monday.