Mumbai inches towards 70K cases; fatality rate stays a big worry

City’s share in Maharashtra’s total cases dipped 18 percentage points, growth rate remains 1,000 cases daily

With 68,410 cases and 3,844 deaths as of Tuesday, the city is inching towards the 70,000-case mark.

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While over the past 50 days, the city’s share in Maharashtra’s total cases has dipped by 18 percentage points, the growth rate remains 1,000 cases daily since May 16. According to experts, the biggest worrying factor, however, is the fatality rate.

Mumbai accounted for 59% of the total deaths in Maharashtra on May 1, 55% on May 31 and 59% on June 22, showing a rise in the past 20 days, mainly owing to the 862 deaths added after the reconciliation of figures. The current fatality rate in Mumbai is 5.52%, and of the 3,737 deaths in the city, over 2,500 deaths were reported in the past 22 days.

According to the state health department data, on April 22, Mumbai had 65% of the total cases in Maharashtra, which went to 67.89% on May 1, 60.42% on May 16, 58.65% on May 31 and 49.77% as of June 22. Going by the current trend of 1,200 cases daily, the city could have 77,000 cases until June 30, according to civic officials. By the end of July, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) hopes to have control over the situation, but remains sceptical about the rise.

Municipal commissioner Iqbal Singh Chahal said on Monday: “We are taking steps to ensure the cases and fatality rate go down. There is a separate category of suspected patients who are not positive, but have breathing issues. I have look at all such patients as suspected Covid-19 and allow walk-in admissions. We are testing them after stabilising them, and giving treatment as per requirement, if they test positive. This was the category where we brought down the fatality rate.”

Since May 16, the city has been reporting cases between 1,000 and 1,700 daily, except on three occasions when the daily cases were below the 1,000 mark, one of them being Tuesday, when the city saw 824 new cases, with 107 deaths.

In the past one week, BMC has been reporting cases between 1,000 and 1,400. The number of discharged patients was 34,576 on Tuesday, with a recovery rate of 50%. The number of active cases stood at 29,982. The fatality rate in the city as of Saturday was 5.61%, followed by doubling rate at 38 days.

A BMC official said, “We have ensured we have enough ambulances, beds, and timely delivery of laboratory reports while tracing, testing, quarantining and treating patients. When I joined on May 8, our growth rate was 8-9%, and today it is 2% because of these steps.”

Chahal said on Monday: “By July, we expect the cases to be controlled, but this process of tracking, testing, quarantining and treating will have to go on until the vaccine arrives. When I joined, Mumbai had 14,000 cases and Delhi had 2,000 cases, and today we have around 65,000 cases and Delhi has around 55,000 cases. This means, we are in a much comfortable position today.”

Siddarth Paliwal, a city-based private health consultant, said, “The number of cases is stable, and the curve is not showing a worrisome trend being developed. We need to work to reduce the fatalities. With over 800 deaths added last week, our mortality rate is above national average. Also, the case share of Mumbai in the state’s numbers has reduced, but the death share is almost the same.”

Civic officials said they are trying to bring down the cases in the western and eastern suburbs. Starting Tuesday, BMC initiated its door-to-door survey in high-rises, slums and chawls in six wards as part of BMC’s Mission Zero. The plan covered Dahisar, Borivli, Kandivli, Malad, Mulund and Bhandup. BMC officials said these areas need to be brought under control to ensure the virus does not spread to south Mumbai once the relaxations are granted at a later stage.

On Tuesday, Dharavi hit another low with only five new cases. BMC’s H-West ward that covers Bandra West, Khar West and Santacruz West and has a growth rate of 3% conducted a meeting with Advanced Local Management members who were asked to come forth as volunteers for screening residents and doctors with clinics along the roads.

BMC has also asked for Covid-19 coordinators to be appointed for each area to help those needing a bed, testing or any other assistance.