Over 100 days after first Covid case, Maha tally reaches 1,16,752; toll 5,651

Maharashtra’s Covid-19 case count reached 1,16,752 after it recorded 3,307 cases on Wednesday. Of them, 51,921 are active cases, according to the state health department.

Maharashtra’s Covid-19 case count reached 1,16,752 after it recorded 3,307 cases on Wednesday. Of them, 51,921 are active cases, according to the state health department.

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The state on Wednesday reported 114 deaths, taking the toll to 5,651. Of them, 77 are in Mumbai, 21 in Pune, seven in Jalgaon, two each in Malegaon, Latur and Nandurbar and one each in Mira Bhayandar, Pimpri-Chinchwad and Yavatmal.

Mumbai, the worst-hit city across the country, recorded 1,359 cases as its case count reached 61,587. Of them, 26,997 are active cases. The city toll stands at 3,244. On May 22, Mumbai reported its highest one-day increase in cases — 1,751.

Wednesday was the eighth day fresh cases breached the 3,000 mark in the state. The state has reported over 2,000 cases daily for more than a month. The highest single-day spike was 3,607 reported on June 11.

From the first case on March 9 to 1,16,752 on June 17 — the past 101 days saw Maharashtra fight a tough battle against Covid-19, as it has been the worst-hit state in the country.

NO PEAK YET?

Data shows the state is getting more than 2,000 cases daily since May 17, when the number of fresh cases breached the 2,000-mark for the first time.

Soon, another grim milestone of 3,000 cases a day was crossed — May 24 (3,041 cases), June 7 (3,007), June 10 (3,254), June 11 (3,607), June 12 (3,493), June 13 (3,427) and June 14 (3,390). In the past 31 days (from May 17), the state has recorded 86,216 cases, an average of 2,694 cases a day.

By the end of May, the state has successfully brought down the case fatality rate to 3.26% from 7.41% (with 148 deaths) on April 13. But it has started rising again. On Tuesday, it jumped to 4.8% from 3.7% (on Monday) as 1,409 deaths were added to its toll. This includes reconciliation of 1,328 past fatalities and 81 deaths reported in the previous 24 hours.

The highest single-day toll was recorded on June 15 (178 deaths). The state health department, however, clarified that 29 of the total deaths were recorded in the past two days, while the rest were past fatalities.

Since May 17, the state has also recorded 4,516 deaths till Wednesday. It also includes reconciliation of past 1,328 fatalities declared by the health department on Tuesday. On an average, it comes to 141 deaths a day.

State health minister Rajesh Tope recently predicted the decline is likely to start from the end of this month, but also stressed he was going by the trend in other countries. Officials, however, while they have got mathematical predictions, models of other countries and expert opinions, it is tough to tell when the situation will be brought under control.

CAUSE FOR CONCERN

Among the prime concerns is the rising case fatality rate (CFR), which touched 4.84% on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the country’s death toll went up to 11,903. The state’s toll stood at 5,651, which means 47.47% of the total deaths in the country were registered in Maharashtra alone.

“The number of cases will continue to rise over the next 15-20 days as the peak has started. The decline is likely to start from the end of June. I’m saying this going by what is happening in other countries. The situation in the state will stabilise soon,” Tope had said on June 14.

“We don’t know the time-frame by which we will be in a position to say the situation is under control. We also don’t know by when the actual decline will start. In fact, no country can tell that. What we do have is mathematical predictions, models of other countries and expert opinions. So far, all mathematical predictions have failed. We are closely monitoring development of other countries,” said a senior official, requesting anonymity.

Dr Hemant Deshmukh, dean, KEM Hospital, Mumbai, said, “Dedicated hospitals for Covid treatment have the highest fatalities because they have the most critical patients with different co-morbidities. We saw patients with existing co-morbidities got uncontrolled diabetes because of stress during lockdown period, although they were taking medicines regularly. Probably, this is one of the reasons behind the rise in fatality rate.”

State health department is also having no plans to start using dexamethasone, a cheap and widely used steroid, that has become the first drug to be able to save the lives of Covid-19 patients, according to trial results in UK. Dr Pradeep Vyas, principal secretary, health department said they are already using Methylprednisolone since last three months. “Methylprednisolone is also an steroid and is giving good result, while Dexamethasone is not yet incorporated in the Centre’s protocol. Also, we have consulted AIIMS doctors and they have informed that it is unlikely to have an effect different from Methylprednisolone,” Dr Vyas said

Trial results announced by the University of Oxford on Tuesday showed dexamethasone, which is used to reduce inflammation in other diseases such as arthritis, reduced death rates by around a third among Covid-19 patients on ventilators and by a fifth for those on oxygen.

The constant improvement in the recovery rate has brought big relief for the state. On Wednesday, it reached 50.68%, from 31.05% on May 27.

It has also completed 7 lakh tests so far. The health department declared to have conducted 7,00,954 tests at various public and private facilities across Maharashtra. Of them, 5,84,202 people tested negative, said an official.