To untie G20 knot, India must lead Ukraine talks
Soon after the conflict broke last year, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres mentioned to me that India, as a democracy with strong leadership, was in a unique position to talk to both sides. This logic still holds
Dealing with conflicts may be the business of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), but an inability to deal with them has become its hallmark in the recent past. Extreme polarisation among the five permanent members has paralysed the UNSC. And this is not just with the Ukraine war. Numerous conflicts have languished on its agenda for decades without resolution.
In the past year, India’s independent and principled stand showed the world that we need to do whatever it takes to create space for dialogue, even during intense fighting when all levers were weaponised through sanctions. India’s February 24, 2022, decision to abstain from the UNSC vote on Ukraine took “into consideration the totality of the circumstances” and our national interests. Since then, we have abstained on numerous votes on this issue in the UN and UN bodies. New Delhi’s position on this conflict has been consistent — the immediate cessation of hostilities and return to dialogue and diplomacy. War is not an option.
Needless to add, considerable pressure was brought to bear on India last year both in Delhi and in New York, including from our friends. This has continued though there is a greater understanding of our position now, if not acceptance.
Our balanced stand has been proactive and helped other developing countries voice their dissatisfaction with how both sides have conducted this conflict. Both sides have pushed for a military solution, ratcheting up violence and bloodshed, and constricting the scope for diplomacy to play any part. This is not tenable. The immense suffering of the Ukrainians has not moved either side. Nor has the suffering of the Global South been a factor in decisions taken, except for the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Many important countries in the developing world, including India, Indonesia, South Africa, Algeria, Gabon (current UNSC member), Mozambique (current UNSC member), Bangladesh, and Vietnam, have refused to take sides, shrugged off the pressure and rejected the push for a military solution.
But is the stand taken by India a year ago at the UNSC enough, or should it do more now? This question is relevant due to two emerging reasons. First, more armaments are being poured into Ukraine, and there is competition in the West to give weapons and impose sanctions. Russia is said to be poised to make a new military thrust, which the Ukrainians claim they are gearing up to resist. This will impact the Global South even more as the conflict drags on.
Second, the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Bengaluru concluded without a consensus document. Russia and China stood firm that they cannot allow a consensus if there are strong references to the conflict, especially in a meeting they felt should focus on global economics, not geopolitics. The West disagreed. A chair’s summary was issued. This issue is not going away under India’s presidency. On the contrary, it could well escalate in the G20, depending on the escalation on the ground. This is not desirable. The foreign ministers’ meeting that began on Wednesday may also find reaching a consensus difficult, and deliberations stormy.
It is against this backdrop that we need to look at India’s role in the Ukraine conflict.
New Delhi’s stand, echoed by many developing countries, to not support either side has helped in ensuring that the conflict is seen in perspective. India has created the space for taking the initiative for dialogue and peace. It’s time we used it. Any such initiative will be seen as credible, coming from a country that has taken an independent position and stands for ensuring international peace and security. If India does not take the lead in this matter, we are going to lose an opportunity to lead on what is certainly one of the important inflection points for at least the next decade or more, and one that will determine how the global geopolitical landscape is going to unfold for India and the world.
Interestingly, soon after the conflict broke last year, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres mentioned to me that India, as a democracy with strong leadership, was in a unique position to talk to both sides. This logic still holds. While neither side may have come to that point yet, we now have an opportunity to play the role the secretary-general envisaged.
India is also uniquely poised since we are the only country in Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Further, our presidency of G20 should be seen as an opportunity, not to mention our chairing of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. We are ready to shoulder this responsibility and take the lead. If indeed we need a larger group of developing countries, though I don’t think this is required, the G20 troika is currently Indonesia and Brazil (current UNSC member), both having a unique voice on this matter. While it cannot be a G20 initiative, these three developing countries could be the core around which a new initiative could revolve. If not, those will lesser credentials and greater bias will take the lead. It has happened before, and we can’t let this happen now.
What India needs now is to convert our proactive stand and voice for peace into action. We are ideally poised to do so.
TS Tirumurti is a former Ambassador/Permanent Representative of India to the UN in New York between 2020-22 and president of the UN Security Council for August 2021
The views expressed are personal
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