E-Paper
Experts cite lower testing as reason for dip in case count
Pune district has conducted close to 13,000 tests as of October 1 and 2,656 Covid-19 cases were reported on that day
The city has been reporting a drop in the number of new Covid-19 cases, a glimmer of hope, however, experts have pointed out that lower testing numbers by the district administration is the reason for this drop. This also could lead to an earlier second wave, the experts have opined.
Also, poor contact tracing and unsupervised home isolations are being cited as reasons the chain of infection will not break.
Pune district has conducted close to 13,000 tests as of October 1 and 2,656 Covid-19 cases were reported on that day.
However, as of Monday, the number of tests conducted is 4,455, one-third of what it was at the beginning of the month. The number of cases went down to 549, one-fourth of the number of cases as of October 1.
The graph of positive cases and the positivity rate has also been going down. The positivity rate was 20 per cent as of October 1 and is at 12 per cent as of October 19.
The positivity rate indicates the number of positives detected for every 100 Covid-19 tests.
Dr Avinash Bhondwe, president of Indian Medical Association (IMA), Maharashtra chapter said that these are not the real numbers and that the administration is not following the ICMR guidelines of contact tracing, which is the only way to break the chain.
He said, “The administration has no idea about those isolated at home. People simply get their reports and then stay at home without informing the administration and they are left unsupervised as they are not on record. So, the real numbers could be way higher. Even if the administration tests about four to five people for every positive person, then the contact tracing tests would be about 4,000-5,000 tests and the additional Covid-19 tests of new positives.”
Bhondwe also added that there was a slight decline in the number of cases at the beginning of August, which again went up following the Ganesh festival.
Similarly, in the Diwali season, there could be a surge which would be evident by November end.
Bhondwe said, “If the police and the civic bodies are not able to control the crowd and ensure strict compliance of social distancing and wearing masks then the second wave will be inevitable.”
