Monday Musings: Decline in active Covid-19 cases in Pune is heartening

Even as the number of positive cases are expected to rise in the coming days, the decline in active cases and fatality rate, and the rise in the recovery of Covid-19 patients are heartening
Barricades placed at an entry to the Upper Indiranagar area that has been sealed in Pune, Maharashtra, India, on Saturday, June 6.(Rahul Raut/HT)
Barricades placed at an entry to the Upper Indiranagar area that has been sealed in Pune, Maharashtra, India, on Saturday, June 6.(Rahul Raut/HT)
Updated on Jun 09, 2020 03:57 PM IST
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Hindustan Times, Pune | ByAbhay Vaidya, Pune

At the end of last week, the total number of Covid-19 progressive positive cases in Pune stood at 7,722 and the number of deaths due to the disease at 372.

From a series of five lockdowns which stretched for a little over two months, we are now in the midst of a phased unlocking. In the non-containment areas, people have stepped out for their morning and evening walks; all kinds of shops have opened up and there is a determined revival of economic activity. From this week onwards, people from Pune are likely to be allowed into the neighbouring Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal areas where many people go to work in the industrial areas.

All of this is bound to increase the number of positive cases and that is what the headlines are going to reflect, day in and day out. At the same time, there is some heartening news too.

Trend of active cases against overall positive cases. (PMC data)
Trend of active cases against overall positive cases. (PMC data)

Also Watch | Maharashtra’s covid cases go past China’s total tally, over 7 million cases worldwide

 

For a good 12 days, from May 25 to June 5, the number of active cases has hovered in the 2,100-2,400 range. Active cases refer to patients who have not recovered from the disease and are undergoing treatment.

In fact, from a high of almost 80% active cases against overall positive cases as of April 28, the number of active cases has dropped to less than one-third as of June 5.Pune Municipal Corporation’s (PMC) data indicates that on April 28, there were 1,057 active cases (79%) among a total of 1339 positive cases. As of June 5, the number of active cases was 2,402 (32%) in a total of 7,447 positive cases.

Pune measures very well on this parameter as compared to the state and national figures. As against Pune’s 32.25% active cases, Maharashtra stands at 52.63% and the national average is 51.36% as of June 5.

Although the number of positive cases is rising, the doubling of positive cases is now 15 days as against 11 days one month ago and about one week during April 16-24.

The mortality rate as of May 8 had dropped from a high of 9 per cent to 5.8 and stood at 4.96 per cent as of June 5. This was a positive sign for Pune given that the fatality rate in Mumbai and Ahmedabad was much higher said data analyst Sahil Deo. As of June 6, the fatality rate in Gujarat stood at 6.2% and West Bengal, 5.2%.

The other positive trend is the sharp decline in positive cases in Bhavani Peth ward which has slipped to the third position with 865 positive cases as of June 5, after being the worst-affected ward ever since the pandemic hit Pune. As of June 5, Dhole-Patil Road ward is now the worst-affected with 1,560 positive cases, followed by Yerawada-Kalas-Dhanori with 935 cases and Kasba-Vishrambaugwada with 646 cases. In terms of active cases, Bhavani Peth’s performance has been still better, having gone far below to the 10th position with just 121 active cases as of June 5.

Cases, receoveries and deaths in Pune city. (CPC Analytics)
Cases, receoveries and deaths in Pune city. (CPC Analytics)

These are heartening developments for Pune even as the situation demands greater focus on the worrisome hotspots. As Mission Begin Again gathers speed with further relaxation in the Covid-19 (coronavirus) restrictions on public movement, we will need to be extra vigilant in guarding ourselves against the pandemic.

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