Number Theory: The closest three-way EPL title race enters its home stretch

The last quarter burst of the English Premier League (EPL) gets underway this weekend

Published on: Mar 30, 2024, 12:29:04 IST

By howindialives.com

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As the last quarter burst of the English Premier League (EPL) gets underway this weekend, Manchester City hosting Arsenal on Sunday has a lot more riding on it than any other remaining match. In a title race of three fine teams, separated by finer margins, this match between two of those sides has the potential to alter the title race irrevocably for both.

Alejandro Garnacho scores a goal during the English Premier League match between Everton and Manchester United at Goodison Park Stadium in Liverpool. (AP)

After 28 matches, the top three — Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City — are separated by just one point, in what is the thinnest margin among the top three sides at this stage in the 32-year history of the EPL. Although all three sides have 10 matches remaining, their remaining itineraries are such that the match at the Etihad acquires an outsized importance in the title race.

Remember 2001-02
In the previous 31 seasons, after 28 matches, the average points difference between the top-placed side and the third-placed side has been 11 points. There have been blowouts. For example, in 2019-20, a season disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, Liverpool opened an 18-point lead to Manchester City and a 29-point lead to Leicester City. Similarly, in 2000-01, Manchester United had a 16-point lead over Arsenal and a 20-point lead over Liverpool. In both cases, the leading side cantered home. That lopsided 2000-01 title race gave shape to 2001-02, which comes closest to the current season for intermediate margins. After 28 matches, three sides — Manchester United, Arsenal and Newcastle United — were separated by just two points, with Liverpool a further two points behind. After match 35 of 38, the difference between the top 3 was five points. In the end, Arsenal broke away, and ended up with a gap of 7 points to Liverpool and 10 points to Manchester United.
United steeliness
In the case of fine margins, anything is possible. Prior to this season, there have been 10 instances where the top three teams in EPL have been separated by up to seven points after 28 matches. On six of those occasions, the team that was leading after 28 matches won the title. On four instances, that was not been the case. The other strand that runs through this is the handling of pressure in crunch time. As many as seven of these 10 seasons involved Manchester United in their glory days under Alex Ferguson. In four of those seven seasons, United led after 28 matches and went on to win the title. In another two instances, in 1995-96 and 2007-08, they came from behind to win a close title race. The 2001-02 loss to Arsenal were the only one in this set where they came out on the wrong side.
Arsenal’s away challenge
In 2023-24, Arsenal are the leader by goal difference. They are team on the charge. They also have the longest title drought, having last won in 2003-04. Of the 10 matches remaining, both Arsenal and Liverpool play five at home and five away. By comparison, Manchester City have six matches at home and four away. In addition to the number of away matches, it’s also about the quality of opposition that these three teams stand to face in away matches. The away test is sterner for Arsenal than for City and Liverpool. The five teams that Arsenal will play in away matches have an average of 49 points till now. This is significantly higher than the average points of the opposition for Liverpool in away games (42 points) and Manchester City (33 points).
The Villa challenge
In remaining matches, Arsenal play one more match against teams currently in the top 5 than City and Liverpool. Besides City, they play Aston Villa at home and Tottenham Hotspur away. Both Liverpool and Manchester City have two matches each against top 5 sides. Liverpool play Aston Villa away and Tottenham Hotspur at home. City play both Arsenal and Villa at home. Seen another way, their paths all flows through Aston Villa, which is having an outstanding season under Unai Emery, who was once sacked by Arsenal. Of the three sides, City has the least matches to play with the top 10. But they also have more commitments besides EPL than Arsenal and Liverpool. They are in the semi-finals of the FA Cup. In Europe, Arsenal and City are in the Champions League quarter-finals, while Liverpool are in the Europa Cup quarter-finals. Other factors, however, are more intangible. City under Pep Guardiola have shown not only a recent history of dominance in the league — winning five of the last six seasons, particularly on the back of a stellar run post-Christmas. For Liverpool, this title run assumes even more significance as it is the final season of legendary manager Jurgen Klopp — a factor that is guaranteed to galvanise players. For Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who have not won the EPL title in 20 years, it is a chance at redemption and revenge — having missed out last year’s title by a whisker. In a season of fine margins, it is set up nicely.