Australian Open 2025 women's draw, preview and prediction: Who can stop Sabalenka's march to historic three-peat?

Ahead of the start of season's first Grand Slam, we analyse each quarter of the draw and predict the winner of 2025 Australian Open

Published on: Jan 11, 2025, 15:30:18 IST

By Aratrick Mondal

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No one dominated on the hard courts in men's tennis like Rafael Nadal did on clay. Likewise, none have thus far dominated reigns on the hard courts much like Iga Swiatek on the red dirt. But Aryna Sabalenka could likely build that reputation for herself when she begins her campaign at the Melbourne Park starting Sunday. The two-time defending women's champion, who hasn't lost a match at the Australian Open since a fourth-round exit in 2022 against Kia Kanepi, will be eye to complete a historic three-peat in Melbourne, which the sport hasn't witnessed since Martina Hingis in 1997-99. However, the road ain't going to be easy for the Belarusian as she will need to steer past two of Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina to do so.

Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus reacts during a training session ahead of the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne on January 9 (AFP)

FIRST QUARTER

Sabalenka, the No. 1 seed, has been handed a difficult draw in Melbourne. It will be former US Open champion Sloane Stephens in round one, potentially 29th seed Linda Noskova, who shocked Swiatek in first week last year in the tournament, in round three, followed by 14th seed Mirra Andreeva, who beat Sabalenka in the French Open last year, in the pre-quarters. Not to forget, she has a projected quarterfinal against fifth seed Zheng Qinwen - a rematch of the 2024 final.

Also Read: Australian Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka to Iga Swiatek - Women’s singles title contenders in Melbourne

Quarterfinal: Sabalenka beats Zheng

SECOND QUARTER

Gauff was stunned by compatriot and rising star Emma Navarro in the fourth round of the US Open, where the American struggled with her serve. But she bounced back fiercely within weeks to end the season with a WTA 1000 in Beijing and the WTA Finals, en route to which she took down both Sabalenka and Swiatek in straight sets, and then inspired USA to a United Cup win this month.

Gauff does find herself in the same half of the draw as Sabalenka, implying a blockbuster semifinal clash is on the cards, but her road to the big match is filled with early threats. The No. 3 seed will begin her campaign against former Australian Open winner Sofia Kenin, who beat her at the Wimbledon last year, and could run into one between one of 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko, 20th seed Karolina Muchova, or Naomi Osaka in the fourth round before potentially setting up a quarterfinal clash against Jessica Pegula, who made the Adelaide final this week.

The three-time quarterfinalist in Melbourne could face a stiff test in the third round against 25th seed Liudmila Samsonova, and one between 11th seed Paula Badosa or 17th seed Marta Kostyuk in the fourth round.

Quarterfinal: Gauff beats Pegula

THIRD QUARTER

Despite the presence of Rybakina, a former finalist in Melbourne, it is Italy's Jasmie Paolini (4), who is the highest seeded player in this section of the draw. The 29-year-old had made back-to-back Slam finals at the Roland Garros and Wimbledon last year, and she does have the edge over the big-serving Kazakh, a potential quarterfinal threat, with a 3-2 head-to-head record, including wins in both their last two meetings.

However, Rybakina, despite a hot-and-cold run in Slams since her maiden haul in Wimbledon in 2022, will carry her sublime form from United Cup and look to steer through the opening week amid a rather comfortable draw. Poalini, on the other hand, will have to likely deal with 28th seed Elina Svitolina in the third round and 15th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia in round four.

Quarterfinal: Rybakina beats Paolini

FOURTH QUARTER

Swiatek may not have enjoyed a great outing in Melbourne, with just one semifinal appearance to show, and is yet to win a WTA title since retaining her French Open crown last year, but 2025 Australian Open does present her with the opportunity to take it deep into the second week. Her closest threats are No. 26 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round, 13th seed Anna Kalinskaya in the fourth round and Navarro, US Open run last summer, in the quarters.

Quarterfinal: Swiatek beats Navarro

Semifinal: Gauff beats Sabalenka; Rybakina beats Swiatek

Final: Gauff beats Rybakina.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Aratrick Mondal
Aratrick Mondal is a senior sports journalist based in New Delhi. In his eight years as a sports writer, Aratrick has worked at leading media organisations, including The Times of India, Times Now, Zee, India TV and currently works at a senior position at Hindustan Times Digital. He writes on cricket, football, pickleball and tennis, among other sports. He has extensively covered India's evolving cricket landscape, the country's new-found love for private leagues such as Indian Pickleball League (IPBL), Ultimate Kho Kho League (UKK), Rugby Premier League (RPL) and several tennis leagues. He has closely covered emerging sports such as pickleball. His coverage of major franchise events lends an atmospheric flavor to his ground reports. His recent story on how SA20 (the domestic cricket league of South Africa) had opened up its grounds to create a carnival-like fan experience garnered major international attention, including appreciation from major cricketers. Tennis holds a special place in his heart. Aratrick has built a strong niche in analytical tennis stories—ranging from Grand Slam narratives and player profiles to tactical breakdowns and ranking trends. His long-form features often decode grand slams, career highs and lows of tennis greats and the upward trajectory of emerging stars. He also closely follows India's tennis landscape, having covered the Davis Cup, Bengaluru Open and Tata Open, among others. His reporting is backed by strong data capabilities, with hands-on experience using tools like Python, Tableau, and Excel to produce visually rich, insight-led stories. This data-first approach enhances accuracy, transparency, and trust. In leadership roles, he has managed editorial shifts, overseen homepage strategy, optimised SEO workflows, and mentored peers to deliver consistent, high-traffic journalism. He recently won the HT DigiStar award for the third quarter of financial year 2025-26. Aratrick is trusted for his balanced reportage, sound sourcing, and ability to translate complex sporting events into engaging narratives that speak to a wide audience. He believes sports is for everyone, not just for the enthusiasts and has a unique ability to bring people together - just like the sumptuous meals you'll often find him cooking on a weekend evening.Read More

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