Covid-19 pandemic surpasses worst-case scenario in Canada

Depending on different scenarios, the number of Covid-19 related deaths in Canada could range between 11,000 and 22,000, while the number of cases could touch 1.9 million, according to the models presented.

The number of deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic in Canada has already surpassed the worst-case scenario presented by the government just last week in modelling of the spread of the disease till April 16.

A woman prays as she leaves flowers outside Residence Herron, a senior's long-term care facility, following a number of deaths since the coronavirus disease outbreak, in the suburb of Dorval in Montreal Quebec, Canada on April 13. (Reuters Photo)

Federal health authorities released modelling for the impact of the pandemic last week and forecast total fatalities may range between 500 and 700. Critics said the estimate for the number of deaths could be understated since the country had already crossed 500 deaths on April 9. That appeared to be borne out as the total number of fatalities touched 780 by Monday evening, three days short of the end of the projection date of April 16.

Through its duration, depending on different scenarios, the number of deaths in the country could range between 11,000 and 22,000, while the number of cases could touch 1.9 million, according to the models presented. They also forecast that the country could witness between 22,580 and 31,850 cases by April 16 and the number reported till Monday night, at nearly 26,000 are within that range.

The reason behind the surge past the outlet limit projected is a series of mass casualties in long-term care establishments across the country, which have claimed dozens of lives of the most vulnerable segment, the elderly and those already afflicted with critical illnesses.

Such deaths in concentrated numbers at facilities of that nature have been reported from the provinces of Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec. Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr Theresa Tam said that these cases were “driving the severe outcomes in Canada” and this had proved “absolutely a key feature of this epidemic.”

The Quebec government on Monday said it was putting the safety and general conditions of the province’s 2,600 long-term care and nursing home facilities under the microscope following the deaths of 31 people in a single home for the elderly since March 13.

Police and the coroner’s office are investigating the deaths at the Residence Herron, a 139-unit home in Montreal, which has been put under provincial control.