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Does UK bypoll result herald a fightback against Brexit?
After the convincing win of a pro-Remain party candidate in a London suburb’s by-election last week, many say it points to the start of a renewed push against Brexit in the UK.
After the convincing win of a pro-Remain party candidate in a London suburb’s by-election last week, many say it points to the start of a renewed push against Brexit in the UK.
The by-poll was held after Conservative MP Zac Goldsmith, elected from the suburb of Richmond Park in 2015, resigned in protest against the government’s October decision to lay a third runway at London’s Heathrow Airport, which is likely to increase noise and air pollution in his constituency and in west London.
The unabashedly pro-EU Liberal Democrats party re-focussed the by-election on Brexit, with its candidate, Sarah Olney, and party leader, Tim Farron, throwing everything they had into the campaign. The Conservative party did not put up a candidate, while the Labour candidate lost his deposit. Olney won.
Many among the 48% in Britain who voted to remain in the EU referendum see the Richmond Park outcome as the beginning of a fightback against Brexit, which is so fraught with legal and other impasses at various levels that it might take the 2020 general election to resolve.
Goldsmith, who lost the London mayoral election in May, was a pro-Brexit candidate in an anti-Brexit constituency, 72% of which had voted to remain in the EU. His protest against the third Heathrow runway remained in the background, even though many share his concerns.
The Brexit process remains embroiled in a maze of imponderables. The Supreme Court is due to hear from Monday a case to decide whether the high court was right to rule that the Theresa May government cannot trigger the exit process without approval from parliament.
Even if a bill or motion to that effect were to be rushed through parliament and the May government sticks to its deadline of triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by the end of March 2017, the two-year completion of the exit process is expected by mid-2019.
The timeline is another imponderable, but even if talks and other exit formalities are completed as envisaged, it will be close to the 2020 general election in Britain. A mid-term election to resolve the Brexit conundrum is unlikely, but the 2020 election may well become an election on Brexit and have the last say.
There are already indications that the “Remainers” are coming together to get the best possible pro-EU deal, if not scuttle the Brexit vote altogether. Former prime ministers Tony Blair and John Major want another referendum, while many MPs and lords are keen to seek amendments when the governments brings a bill or motion in parliament to seek its approval to trigger Article 50 - and delay it beyond March 2017.
