Trump warns Russia to get ready as US missiles ‘will be coming’ to Syria

A strike that hits Russian assets in Syria -- even if unintentionally -- could result in a dangerous game of one-upmanship, potentially dragging the US further into a conflict the president wants to leave.

President Donald Trump said relations with Russia are worse than they have ever been and warned the country to “get ready” because a volley of US missiles would soon be sent into Syria in response to a suspected chemical weapons attack.

Smoke billows behind destroyed buildings in the former rebel-held town of Saqba in the Eastern Ghouta region on the outskirts of Damascus on Tuesday. (AFP File Photo)

“Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

A strike that hits Russian assets in Syria -- even if unintentionally -- could result in a dangerous game of one-upmanship, potentially dragging the US further into a conflict the president wants to leave. Russia has strengthened Syria’s air-defence capabilities, deploying S-400 missile batteries after US strikes a year ago hit a Syrian base.

“The most important thing about a US strike is the potential for Russian casualties as a result of any military activity there,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa research at Eurasia Group. “That is where there’s a risk of an escalatory cycle that would be much more meaningful than attacking Assad’s forces.”

Russian Response

Russia’s ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Zasypkin, told Hezbollah’s Al Manar TV that any rockets that threaten Russian forces “will be downed as well as the sources of those rockets.” In March, Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s General Staff, warned that “in the event a threat arises to the lives of our servicemen, the Armed Forces of Russia will take retaliatory measures against both missiles and the carriers that use them.”

Trump’s remarks weighed on investors already concerned about war. Oil prices surged to the highest level in two weeks in New York. Turkey, which has troops in Syria, saw its currency weaken to a record, while the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index for stocks reversed gains to drop as much as 3.3 percent. Saudi Arabia’s main stock index also extended its decline.

Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told CNN on Wednesday that while there is “no question” Putin is culpable, she’s concerned there is no strategy.

“It is one thing to take action about this really egregious issue of this chemical attack,” Albright said. “We need a strategy of some kind and I hope there is work going on on that.”

For the second time in less than a year, Trump is weighing a military response to a gas attack. This time, he’s under pressure to hit harder and take bigger risks. The attack Trump ordered last year was limited to a single Syrian base and left little lasting damage. A new retaliatory strike will almost certainly inflict greater damage and probably hit more targets important to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

“It’s unlikely that another set of one-off strikes will deter Assad,” said Jennifer Cafarella, a Syria analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. Trump needs to “establish a more effective deterrent by inflicting greater costs on Assad and perhaps his backers.”

The prospect of direct participation by France -- and possibly other allies such as the UK -- would provide greater legitimacy for a large operation that otherwise would risk criticism as violating international law, said Andrew Bell, an assistant professor at Indiana University who focuses on international security and the law of armed conflict. A broader coalition helps build the case for a humanitarian mandate, he said.

Finding Partners

French President Emmanuel Macron indicated on Tuesday he believes Syria used chemical weapons in violation of United Nations resolutions and that a decision on how to respond would come from France and its allies “in the coming days.” Macron said any attack would be aimed at the regime’s chemical “capabilities” and not at its Iranian and Russian allies.

Saudi Arabia too could participate in any strike “if our alliance with our allies requires it,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said at a press conference in Paris.

“Smart missiles should be aimed at terrorist, not the legal government, which for several years has been fighting international terrorism on its territory,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on Facebook in response to Trump’s tweet. She suggested real purpose of the strike might be to cover up evidence related to the chemical attack, which Russia alleges was a fake.

Eurocontrol, a European air traffic agency, asked airlines to apply caution on flights to the eastern Mediterranean region because of possible air strikes in Syria over the next 72 hours.

One problem the US faces is that a more forcible response could upset the delicate balance of groups operating in the country. The situation on the ground is a patchwork of competing and loosely aligned interests, including Russia, Iran, Turkey and the US, which has about 2,000 troops there advising the Syrian Democratic Forces in a fight against Islamic State militants.

Long-Range Missiles

Any US-led attack almost certainly would rely heavily on long-range, precision-strike missiles launched from naval vessels or manned aircraft outside Syrian airspace even as US or allied forces attempted to neutralize Syria’s well-known integrated air-defence system.

The Tomahawk missile, made by Raytheon Co., would probably play a prominent role in such an attack. It has been fired in most conflicts since its initial use in 1991 against Iraq, when 288 were launched. In last year’s attack, two U.S. destroyers fired 59 Tomahawks.

The latest version of the Tomahawk, which both the US and UK navies have, can loiter over an area for hours, beam target images and battle damage assessments to commanders and be programmed to attack new stationary targets while overhead.

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Flatley in Washington at dflatley1@bloomberg.net, Gregory Viscusi in Paris at gviscusi@bloomberg.net, Donna Abu-Nasr in Beirut at dabunasr@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Bill Faries at wfaries@bloomberg.net, Alan Crawford at acrawford6@bloomberg.net, Andrew J. Barden, Elizabeth Wasserman

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