Bihar Assembly Election 2020: RJD banks on chemistry with voters over poll arithmetic

Arithmetic has a tendency to change if voters’ calculations align with the political climate. It is Tejashwi’s chemistry with voters that has changed the tone and tenor of the election, said a senior RJD leader

Ahead of the 2019 national elections, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav spoke about his better chemistry with voters. But it was the poll arithmetic that proved to be stronger in favour of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as the RJD was unable to get even a single seat despite getting 15.36% votes. Yadav is again enthused by the response he is getting at his assembly election rallies. The RJD is hoping the chemistry will triumph given the rapid change in the public mood that the party believes is against the Nitish Kumar government due to its alleged failures regarding issues concerning the masses.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav. (ANI)

RJD leader Manoj Jha insisted the arithmetic does not always work, and that chemistry certainly does. “Arithmetic has a tendency to change if voters’ calculations align with the political climate. It is Tejashwi’s chemistry with voters due to his ability to talk in their language on the issues they identify with that has changed the tone and tenor of the election.” He said Yadav has set the poll agenda by raising for the first time the issue of unemployment. “Now no political party or leader is able to avoid it. Earlier, as part of the design, unemployment was kept away from poll discourse.”

Nitish Kumar has ruled for almost 15 years banking on “good governance and development”. He is seeking another term on the back of NDA’s unbeatable poll arithmetic.

Going by the arithmetic, any two of the three parties – Kumar’s Janata Dal-United (JD-U), Bharatiya Janata Party, and the RJD – coming together have always proved overwhelmingly strong against the third. It happened in the 2010 and 2015 assembly polls.

Kumar has been trying to beat anti-incumbency by consistently comparing his rule with RJD’s “lantern age”. He talks about four-lane roads across the state and contrasts them with the dilapidated ones before his tenure. Kumar is banking on the women empowerment he claims to have ushered and reminds the people of RJD’s “jungle raj”. But unemployment remains a problem for him.

Ruling JD-U leader and minister Sanjay Jha insisted NDA’s social base is wide and growing due to its track record of inclusive growth. “People cutting across caste and creed have felt the positive change and they will never like to fritter it away. Some parties are known for siding with some particular communities while NDA’s umbrella is all-encompassing and that is its source of strength. Crowds at rallies have never been a yardstick of voters’ choice in Bihar.”

Analyst Shaibal Gupta said a fast turn of events had caused some uncertainty, which indicates some churning in the society. “Bihar’s society is moving from identity-based politics to development politics...the churning is palpable.”

SM Jha, a former Vice-Chancellor of LN Mithila University, said younger people at rallies were no yardstick for the turnout as was evident in 2015. “But issues like unemployment have been able to strike a chord with the voters, forcing all political parties to talk on those lines. ...a lot of other factors will come into play--development, social alliance...”

Political analyst NK Choudhary said the arithmetic would ultimately prevail, as the outcome of the election is determined by three key variables. “One is caste or religion, leadership, and performance. Chemistry works when arithmetic is closer to being right. How much the RJD has improved, only time will tell, but apparently, it is getting tighter, as the Opposition has been trying to play up the anti-incumbency card and has raised some economic issues.”