Survey suggests BJP could win majority in Karnataka today; Siddaramaiah still top CM choice: Report

Despite the bleak electoral outlook for Congress, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah remains the most preferred leader in the state.

In a significant projection for Karnataka’s political future, a new pre-poll survey suggests the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could secure a clear majority in the Assembly if elections were held today, marking a potential first for the party in the state, Deccan Herald reported.

The month-long study, which included responses from 10,481 participants across Karnataka, forecasts a BJP sweep.

According to the report, the survey, conducted jointly by Hyderabad-based People’s Pulse and Codemo Technologies, also indicates a steep decline in support for the Janata Dal (Secular), signalling an increasingly bipolar contest between the BJP and Congress.

The month-long study, which included responses from 10,481 participants across Karnataka, forecasts a BJP sweep with 136 to 159 seats in the 224-member Assembly. The ruling Congress is projected to win between 62 and 82 seats, with its vote share dropping to 40.3%, a decline from the 42.88% it secured in 2023. 

Meanwhile, the JD(S) is predicted to fare poorly, securing just 3 to 6 seats, with its vote share plummeting to 5% from 18.3%, underscoring its waning influence, the report further added.

Siddaramaiah most preferred leader

Despite the bleak electoral outlook for Congress, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah remains the most preferred leader in the state. According to the survey, 29.2% of respondents named him as their top choice for the chief minister’s post. 

His deputy, DK Shivakumar, polled second with 10.7%. Among BJP figures, none managed to breach double digits individually—B.S. Yediyurappa was favoured by 5.5%, state party president B.Y. Vijayendra by 5.2%, and former CM Basavaraj Bommai by 3.6%. However, 16.9% of respondents said they would support “any BJP candidate” for the top job.

The survey findings, first reported by Deccan Herald, also reflect growing dissatisfaction with the Congress government’s performance. While 48.4% of respondents said the governance was either good or very good, a majority—51.6%, rated it as average, poor, or very poor. Anti-incumbency appears to be a significant factor, with many voters expressing discontent despite the popularity of certain welfare schemes.

Among the Congress’s five flagship welfare initiatives, the Gruha Lakshmi scheme emerged as the most well-received. This programme, which offers ₹2,000 per month to women who head households, was backed by 45.4% of respondents. Other schemes like Shakti (free bus travel for women), Anna Bhagya (free food grains), Gruha Jyothi (free electricity), and Yuva Nidhi (unemployment allowance) followed in popularity, in that order.

The survey also explored public perception of the controversial Social and Educational Survey, commonly referred to as the caste census. While 42.3% said they trusted the data (26.3% fully and 16% partially), a significant 35% expressed distrust, and 22.7% said they were unaware of the report altogether. Notably, support for the caste census was higher among Congress supporters than BJP voters.