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Can three-legged Maharashtra govt of ideologically opposing allies last?
Political analysts, however, said that despite being an unnatural and even a clumsy alliance of the NCP, Shiv Sena and Congress in Maharashtra, once the government is formed, it will not fall as easily as the BJP would like.
With the Shiv Sena-led three-party coalition poised to form the next regime, the big question for Maharashtra is – How long can this three-legged government of ideologically opposing allies last?
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), left out in the cold despite winning the most seats (105) and its last-minute gamble for power, is hoping this government will not last beyond six months. There is little doubt that the “khichadi” government will pull in different directions given the Shiv Sena and Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) not only have dissimilar ideologies, voter base and functioning styles, but also an inherent trust deficit.
“The past experience shows that wherever the Congress has supported minority governments, they haven’t lasted. This has been the case in eight states and the Maharashtra experiment will be no different. From functioning styles to ideology, these parties have nothing in common,” said Madhav Bhandari, BJP spokesperson.
The BJP may not admit, but it is still hoping for a re-run of its Karnataka experiment in Maharashtra, sooner than later.
Political analysts, however, said that despite being an unnatural and even a clumsy alliance, once the government is formed, it will not fall as easily as the BJP would like. They said that “political survival” will take precedence over ideology. “As a safe bet I would say this government will last for two years, but it may even complete its tenure. There is an understanding between Uddhav Thackeray and NCP chief Sharad Pawar. They will keep contentious issues out and run the government to keep the BJP away and re-energise themselves for the next poll battle,” said political analyst Prakash Bal.
He pointed out, “India has seen several coalition governments where parties have come together to keep a common enemy out. The NDA, led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, came into existence as an anti-Congress front and was made up of 20 parties. So, an anti-BJP front can be a powerful motivation.”
Supporters of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi argue that those who red flag the ideological differences should look at similar tie-ups in the past. For instance, the Congress supported Muslim League in Kerala, while the BJP ran a government with PDP in Kashmir for three years. With the Congress adopting soft Hindutva (the party has welcomed the Supreme Court verdict on Ayodhya) and Shiv Sena diluting its anti-minorities (is supporting 5% reservation to Muslims) and anti-North Indian stance to expand its base, ideology will be a sticking point, but may not lead to a break-up.
Pune-based political analyst Nitin Birmal said, “All three parties know they need to be in power to keep their support base and emerge stronger in 2024. A stint in power in India’s financial capital will give them a much-needed fresh lease. I don’t see the Congress and NCP letting go of power so easily.”
NCP and Sena insiders said there is a rough understanding that the Sena would get a free run in urban Maharashtra, while the NCP-Congress would get to retain their rural bastion in western Maharashtra and Vidarbha.
Beyond all this, the future of the government would largely hinge on the dynamics and trust between Thackeray and Pawar. Until now, Thackeray did not share the best relationship with Pawar, especially because the latter tacitly backed his cousin and rival Raj Thackeray. With Pawar anointing Uddhav as the chief minister even after his nephew Ajit attempted a split, their relationship couldn’t be on a better start.
“Our government will last the entire tenure. Our commitment is to form a government that has no bias against religion, caste or creed and is run on the principles of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj. Our plank will be regional, focussed on our state, our farmers and our people,” said Nawab Malik, NCP spokersperson.
