Clear skies in NCR as southwest monsoon withdraws

Despite recording only eight rainy days this month, Delhi has already seen excess rain this September. So far, the month has recorded 136.1mm – an excess over the monthly normal of 123.5mm. Delhi has seen surplus rainfall since May.

With the withdrawal of southwest monsoon likely this week, Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) will continue to see clear skies and no rain ahead. The India Meteorological Department on Sunday said parts of Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat and Rajasthan have favourable conditions for the withdrawal to take place within the next 24 hours.

Delhi’s air quality remained “moderate” on Sunday, making it the tenth straight “moderate” day with farm fires having began across northern plains.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some more parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab; some parts of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours..” the IMD said in its weather bulletin on Sunday evening.

Delhi is currently experiencing dry, northwesterly winds and saw the last spell of rain on September 18 and 19, at 52mm over the two days. The city typically sees withdrawal from September 25.

“After an initial flurry, it has been a relatively dry September with westerly winds being recorded. This leads to dry weather and this wind direction persists when the monsoon withdraws,” said an IMD official.

While the Met department did not specify the exact day of the withdrawal, experts said it should occur in Delhi-NCR within the next three to four days. “With no rain expected and little moisture, the withdrawal criteria is likely to be met for Delhi by Thursday,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet.

Despite recording only eight rainy days this month, Delhi has already seen excess rain this September. So far, the month has recorded 136.1mm – an excess over the monthly normal of 123.5mm. Delhi has seen surplus rainfall since May.

This year, Delhi saw the wettest May ever on record, logging 186.4mm rainfall, over six times the normal average of 30.7mm. In June, the Capital recorded 107.1mm of monthly rainfall, an excess of 45% over the long-period average (LPA) of 74.1mm. July saw 259.3mm rain — 24% more than the LPA of 209.7mm. August, meanwhile, was the wettest in 15 years, with 400.1mm rain — an excess of 72% over the LPA of 233.1mm.

Overall this monsoon season, 902.6mm has been recorded — an excess of around 35% over the LPA of 640.4mm.

With no rain expected this week, the temperature is also expected to be above normal. The maximum on Sunday was 35.3 degree Celsius (°C), a degree above normal. It is forecast to hover between 34-36°C on Monday.

Meanwhile, Delhi’s air quality remained “moderate” on Sunday, making it the tenth straight “moderate” day with farm fires having began across northern plains. The average air quality index (AQI) was 127 on Sunday, marginally lower than 131 on Saturday.

Punjab has recorded 56 farm fires this month so far while Haryana has logged three such fires, as per data from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI).

Comparative data from the same period of September 15-21 showed Punjab recorded 52 such fires last year and seven in 2023, as per IARI’s Consortium for Research on Agroecosystem Monitoring and Modelling from Space (CREAMS). Haryana, meanwhile, recorded 16 farm fires till this stage last year and seven in 2023.

In Punjab, the highest fire count has emerged from Amritsar (35), followed by Patiala (7). In Haryana, one count each has emerged from Faridabad, Fatehabad and Sonipat.