Can’t rule out drastic spike in Covid cases, says Mumbai civic body

Although there has been no drastic spike in the number of Covid-19 cases in Mumbai reported after Ganeshotsav, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has said one cannot completely rule out an alarming surge in the coming months

Although there has been no drastic spike in the number of Covid-19 cases reported after Ganeshotsav, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has said one cannot completely rule out an alarming surge in the coming months. This comes a day after the BMC informed the Bombay high court (HC) on Monday that it doesn’t see the much-feared third wave of Covid-19 hitting the city. On Monday, reportedly the BMC’s counsel, Anil Sakhare, informed the high court that the work is on (of vaccination) very smoothly. Now, there is no shortage of vaccines too. Mumbai is safe. We do not see a third wave (of the Covid-19) coming. However, the BMC has said any spike further cannot be ruled out.

Although there has been no drastic spike in the number of Covid-19 cases reported after Ganeshotsav, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has said one cannot completely rule out an alarming surge in Mumbai in the coming months. (Satish Bate/HT PHOTO)

According to BMC officials, the seasonal migration post monsoon and upcoming festivals are going to involve social gatherings and if Covid-19 appropriate behaviour is not followed, there is a possibility of further spike. The 15-days incubation period after Ganesh festival ended on October 5 and the BMC has maintained that the city is in a comfortable position for now.

Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner of the BMC, said, “The situation right now in the city is very comfortable and it is maybe safe considering we are able to handle the caseload very well and there is adequate health infrastructure to handle cases. However, we cannot completely rule out any further spike. There are festivals upcoming, including Navratri, Dussehra and Diwali where there will be gatherings.”

Kakani added, “We cannot make any claim that a third wave will not come. In Ahmednagar district, several villages are facing a spike and we cannot claim anything on the above lines. We have to remain cautious and continue following Covid-19 appropriate behaviour, and get vaccinated considering it is definitely helping control the spread.”

An indication of Covid-19 vaccines being effective was concluded in an analysis conducted by the BMC last month. HT had reported on September 12 that an analysis of D ward in South Mumbai had revealed that only five out of 158 fully vaccinated patients had to be hospitalised due to complications and most importantly all of them had recovered.

Further, on Tuesday, the city reported 427 cases, followed by two deaths. The recovery rate of the city is 96% with 721,310 recoveries. The mortality rate is 2.16% and there are 6,161 active cases in the city. The city’s daily positivity rate has been hovering between 0.90% and 1.40% for nearly two weeks now. On Tuesday, a daily positivity rate of 1.33% was reported due to 31,969 tests. Further, 66,005 citizens were vaccinated on Tuesday, taking the total to 12,710,607. Of the total, 4,396,477 citizens are fully vaccinated in the city. The BMC aims to fully vaccinate the entire adult eligible population by February 2022.

Meanwhile, experts claimed there may be a spike post festivals and seasonal migration, but the spike should be mild and not like the spike during the second wave. Dr Madhav Sathe, former professor of microbiology at Nair Hospital, said, “There will be a spike maybe after Diwali, but there cannot be something like a third wave. 95% there will not be any third wave as the virus variants currently out are unlikely to mutate, but yes we cannot completely rule it out. Hence, we will have to continue wearing a mask and following Covid-appropriate behaviour.”