Maharashtra still not out of Covid-19 danger: Experts

There is still potential for a surge in Covid-19 cases despite the steady drop over the past few weeks, health experts warned, amid the unlocking of activities in the state since June 1.

There is still potential for a surge in Covid-19 cases despite the steady drop over the past few weeks, health experts warned, amid the unlocking of activities in the state since June 1. They feel that although the devastating second wave has subsided, various factors like the large number of cases in some districts, lack of Covid-19 appropriate behaviour, and slow pace of vaccination, still remain a matter of concern.

HT Image

On Sunday, the state recorded 10,422 cases, taking the tally to 5,908,992, and 483 deaths, pushing the toll to 111,104. Mumbai reported 695 cases and 19 deaths, taking the tally to 715,660 and toll to 15,183.

Dr Subhash Salunkhe, advisor to the state on Covid-19 management, points out that the danger of another disastrous Covid-19 wave still persists. “We need to continuously monitor the incidence and recoveries daily, along with tests. It is imperative to speed up the pace of vaccination. If we see the cases graph as constant when on its downward journey, then it’s a warning sign. Then if we see an upward trend, it is definitely a danger sign, where again restrictions need to be imposed,” said Salunkhe. Salunkhe voiced his concerns to deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar during a meeting last week.

In the past week, the number of new Covid-19 cases has averaged 11,030 per day. There were 77,211 cases in the period between June 7 and June 13. A week before it, between May 30 and June 6, there were 103,489 new Covid-19 cases — a daily average of 14,784.

State surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awate said steps are being taken to reduce cases in those districts where cases are still high. “We are now focused on reducing the cases in six districts like Kolhapur, Raigad, Satara, Kolhapur, Ratnagiri and Pune, where the positivity rate is more than 10%,” said Awate.

He said that the unlocking was being done in a scientific manner on basis of the positivity rates and oxygen-bed occupancy to facilitate the opening up of the lockdown.

Mumbai, which has been reporting a declining trend in terms of positivity rate, moved to level two from level three of the unlocking classifications this week. Level two of unlock requires positivity rate to be below 5% and oxygen bed occupancy to be between 25% and 40%, which were fulfilled by Mumbai. However, the Brihamumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has decided to stick to the relaxations applicable to level-three areas to ensure that the virus spread does not see a rise in cases. Mumbai clocked 695 new cases on Sunday with 19 deaths.

Dr Awate said BMC is right in its decision. “Although the city may meet the criteria which means curbs needs to be relaxed, the fact remains that BMC, which works on the ground level is the best judge of the situation. Hence, its justified in taking this decision,” said Dr Awate.

Awate said the “carrot and stick approach” is being adopted for those not adhering to Covid-19 appropriate behaviour. “We are making the people aware on the consequences of not wearing masks or not maintaining social distance and also fining them,” said Awate.

Maharashtra’s mortality rate has gone up significantly over the past two weeks as the state authorities have reconciled 15,996 deaths during this period.

There were 212,536 tests conducted on Sunday, while the total number of cases from the time of outbreak has now reached 5,908,992. The toll has now reached 111,104 with Pune leading with 15,187 deaths, followed closely by Mumbai with 15,183 deaths. The number of active cases recorded were 155,588 with Pune again leading with 18,571, followed by Mumbai with 18,166.