Sena versus Sena: Final round between Thackeray and Shinde begins

On the legal front, the SC’s decision will be the clincher, for the political front, the upcoming elections will give the leaders their mandate

Maharashtra assembly speaker Rahul Narwekar’s verdict on disqualification petitions filed by rival Shiv Sena factions against each other’s MLAs has set the stage for the final round of battle between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. The battle that began in June 2022 with the split in the Shiv Sena and the collapse of the Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, will reach its logical end on both fronts—legal and political — this year.

Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray (File)

Shinde won round one, when he managed to take away a majority of Sena MLAs, form the government with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and become the chief minister in place of Thackeray. He also won round two, when the Supreme Court verdict allowed him to continue as chief minister even though the judgment pointed out that not all that transpired was in accordance with the law, but left it to the Assembly speaker to decide on the disqualification petition against him. That Narwekar did not disqualify Shinde was something that the Thackeray faction might have anticipated.

The legal battle reached a conclusive stage with the speaker disposing of the disqualification petitions. In May, the apex court had referred the Thackeray faction’s petition challenging Shinde’s appointment as CM, seeking action against him under the anti-defection law, to the speaker stating that he is the relevant authority. Now, Thackeray has moved the Supreme Court challenging Narwekar’s decision.

The Supreme Court is also hearing another petition filed by the Thackeray faction: This one challenges the Election Commission’s decision to hand over the Shiv Sena party name and symbol to Shinde. Both these decisions by the top court will determine the winner of the legal battle.

Much has already been written about Narwekar’s order. Several legal experts wondered if it would be tenable in the apex court, as they think it goes against the spirit of the anti-defection law, which was enacted to prevent defection by elected representatives from one party to another.

In an interview with the Hindustan Times last week, Narwekar insisted that his order was tenable in law. “The order that I have given is absolutely tenable in law, well-reasoned and justified. I do not see any difficulty with it,” he said.

He considered three parameters to decide the original party: The constitution, the leadership structure and the legislative majority. He concluded that the constitution of the Shiv Sena on record of the Election Commission of India was that of 1999 and hence did not help in determining whose faction was real. The leadership structure as cited by the Thackeray faction was not in conformity with the constitution of the ECI (Sena founder Bal Thackeray was alive in 1999 and at the time Uddhav was just one of the leaders in the hierarchy and did not have the powers of the party chief). Legislative majority was the main criterion that helped Narwekar in deciding which faction was real Shiv Sena, he reasoned. He declared the Shinde faction, which has 40 out of the 56 Sena MLAs, as the real party; Bharat Gogawale was the party’s chief whip.

The Thackeray faction had sought the disqualification of Shinde and his supporting MLAs for violating the party whip issued by chief whip Sunil Prabhu. Since Gogawale was deemed to be the chief whip, the question of disqualifying Shinde and his MLAs did not even arise, Narwekar ruled and disposed of the petitions.

The Thackeray faction has questioned the grounds of this order. It pointed out that the Supreme Court's May 2023 order clearly stated that the speaker’s recognition of Gogawale as Shiv Sena chief whip in June 2022 was illegal. The Thackeray faction filed a petition before the Supreme Court on Monday (January 15) challenging Narwekar’s verdict. In turn, Shinde filed a petition in the Bombay high court challenging Narwekar’s ruling on the 14 MLAs of the Thackeray faction, who were disqualified.

Legislative majority is also the grounds that the ECI considered when it ruled in favour of the Shinde faction. Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders will thus wait for the SC’s ruling on this as well.

The political battle between the two is the upcoming elections: First, the Lok Sabha elections are expected to take place this summer and then the assembly elections are expected to be held in September-October. These two elections will show whether traditional Sena voters, in particular, support Shinde’s rebellion or stand by Thackeray.

“It will be our aim to ensure we win more than 45 (out of 48) Lok Sabha seats for Modiji,” Shinde announced in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the inauguration of the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link and other projects in Navi Mumbai on January 12. Thackeray has chosen to continue with the MVA and has even managed to convince his allies, Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), to include Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi in the INDIA bloc of the Opposition parties. He can face the might of three ruling parties — BJP, Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction of NCP — only with the backing of the MVA.

For Shinde and Thackeray, the bigger test will be the assembly elections. A victory for Shinde would mean that his rebellion was a successful and fatal blow to Thackeray. On the other hand, if the mandate is in favour of Thackeray and the MVA, Shinde’s political graph could well be on the decline.