What does Raj Thackeray bring to the table for BJP in Maharashtra?

A day after MNS chief declared his unconditional support to Modi, party leaders divided over its benefit to the BJP, allies wary

Mumbai: With doubts over the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena’s ability to draw a sizeable share of Marathi votes, the BJP has added the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) to its growing friends’ list. It now hopes that Raj Thackeray — among the biggest crowd pullers in state politics — will help the ruling Mahayuti alliance attract Marathi voters in Mumbai as well as the Mumbai metropolitan region (MMR) which has 11 Lok Sabha seats. At the same time, the BJP is also wary of the reaction of north Indian voters and its allies – Shinde-led Sena and Ajit Pawar led Nationalist Congress Party – who are irked that the MNS would eat into their share of seats in the assembly elections six months later.

Mumbai, India - April 9, 2024: MNS chief Raj Thackeray public meeting at Shivaji park, dadar on the occasion of Gudi Padawa in Mumbai, India, on Tuesday, April 9, 2024. (Photo by Satish Bate/ Hindustan Times) (Hindustan Times)

After the initial talks with the ruling parties failed over seat sharing and fighting the polls on the BJP or the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) symbol, the MNS opted to extend support to the NDA for the Lok Sabha polls without joining the coalition. The party has been promised a greater role in the Vidhan Sabha and local body polls, especially in Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli and Nashik.

MNS, which was formed as a party to raise the voice of the sons of the soil, contested 11 Lok Sabha seats in 2009 and polled 15.03 lakh or 4.1% votes. In 2014, the vote shared dropped to 1.5% or 7.08 lakh votes when it fielded 10 seats. In 2019, The party did not field any candidate and rather held an anti-Modi campaign. This time, MNS is not fielding any candidate but Thackeray has declared support to Modi and will also hold campaign rallies for him.

In the 2009 Assembly polls, the party contested 143 seats and won 13 — its highest ever — with 5.71% votes. In the 2014 Assembly polls, it contested 219 seats but could win just one seat. It polled 3.2% votes. In the 2019 assembly election, it contested over 101 seats and could win one seat with a 2.25% voteshare. Observers say that MNS voters had realised that the party was only playing spoilsport and switched since they didn’t want the Marathi vote to be decided.

A day after Raj Thackeray’s announcement at his party’s Gudi Padwa rally at Shivaji Park in Mumbai that he was extending unconditional support to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP leaders said the support could help the ruling alliance candidates bag an additional 20,000 to 30,000 votes in each constituency in cities such as Mumbai, Pune and Nashik. This could be crucial as the assessment done by the BJP has indicated that Shinde has been unable to transfer traditional Shiv Sena votes to the NDA. Though the MNS numbers may not be much, they would matter in close contests likely in the state.

“Though the voteshare of the MNS has been dwindling since 2009, when the party performed its best, its candidates still poll sizable votes. In the 2019 assembly polls the party contested limited number of seats and still polled 2.25% votes of the total votes (from 5.71% in 2009 and 3.15% in 2014). Some of its candidates in Mumbai polled around 40,000 votes (Mahim and Shivadi). When the fight is close, this percentage counts,” said a BJP leader.

Since the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP has looked at Raj as its plan B to tame the Uddhav-led Sena. Its leaders kept hobnobbing with him. Devendra Fadnavis, deputy chief minister, even attended his public functions. Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections this time, the party leaders were divided whether to include him as an ally of the NDA or encourage him to contest separately which could divide Uddhav Thackeray’s votes.

Vishwas Pathak, BJP spokesperson, said, “He has changed his party’s ideological strategy and is coming close to the BJP ideology. He has accepted the development face of Modiji and therefore it is a positive development.”

Krishna Hegde, Shiv Sena (Shinde) spokesperson said that more than the transfer of vote bank, the message that other than two, all other Thackerays are with the ruling alliance is important. “Even if a couple of percent votes are transferred it plays a crucial role in winning margins,” he said.

Padmabhushan Deshpande, Mumbai based political analyst, said that the decision taken by Raj Thackeray was under pressure from the ruling alliance. “The speech by Raj Thackeray on Tuesday was completely illogical unlike his speeches in the past. He ridiculed state leaders from the ruling alliance and then announced his support to Modi. This clearly indicates that he has extended support unwillingly,” he said.