BJP garnered votes across community lines in Gautam Budh Nagar: Experts

According to data from the Election Commission of India, BJP candidates managed to garner 50-60% of the voteshare even in villages where Yadav, Gurjar and even Muslim voters are in the majority

This assembly election, candidates of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) collectively registered a 41.27% higher voteshare, garnering 574,423 votes across Gautam Budh Nagar’s Noida, Dadri and Jewar constituencies compared to 2017, when they bagged 406,622 votes.

BJP workers celebrate the party’s victory in UP assembly election in Noida on Thursday. (Sunil Ghosh/HT Photo)

Noida’s Pankaj Singh secured 244,319 votes this time; he had secured 162,417 votes in 2017. Dadri’s Tejpal Nagar secured 218,068 votes, a considerable increase over the 141,226 votes he garnered in 2017. And Jewar’s Thakur Dhirendra Singh received 112,036 votes this year, besting his 2017 count of 102,979 votes.

According to experts, the reason for the party’s unprecedented victory in Gautam Budh Nagar is that people voted across religious and caste lines.

“If one analyses the polling pattern, one can see that caste and religious lines blurred to a large extent in this election. All communities voted for the BJP because the voter has become politically aware and wants to vote for development, good governance and better law and order. As political awareness increases, the outcome will depend on how well the government handles important issues, rather than the narrative of caste and religion,” said Vivek Mishra, head of the department of political science, Gautam Buddha University, Greater Noida.

According to data from the Election Commission of India, BJP candidates managed to garner 50-60% of the voteshare even in villages where Yadav, Gurjar and even Muslim voters are in the majority. Traditionally, Yadavs are considered loyal to Samajwadi Party because party chief Akhilesh Yadav belongs to the community, say experts. And the party was banking on Gurjar voters this time, because they thought the community would vote for its Noida candidate Sunil Chaudhary, who belongs to the community. Similarly, experts say, going my previous election trends, Muslims traditionally vote against the BJP.

However, this election, in Noida constituency’s Haldoni village, which comprises a majority of Muslim voters, BJP’s Rajput candidate Pankaj Singh got the highest voteshare, besting Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate Sunil Chaudhary, who is a Gurjar. Of the total 654 votes polled in Haldoni, BJP got 352 votes against SP’s 269, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) managed only 10 and Congress four.

In Noida’s Bahlolpur village, which comprises a majority of Yadav voters, the BJP secured 429 against the SP’s 94 votes, out of the total 572 votes polled. The remaining votes went to the other candidates. In Parthala, another Yadav majority village, the BJP got 319 votes, while the SP garnered 48, out of the total 405 votes polled. In Bhangel, a Gurjar majority village, BJP received 419 votes against the SP’s 76, out of the total 523 votes polled. The remaining votes went to the other 12 candidates, including independents.

The same pattern was witnessed in Jewar, where most people turned a blind eye to caste while voting, because in many villages comprising a majority of the Gurjar community, the incumbent MLA and BJP candidate Thakur Dhirendra Singh, a Rajput, defeated his rival--Samajwadi Party’s Avtar Singh Bhadana, a Gurjar--by 56,315 votes, winning what political experts said would be a tough fight in the high-profile constituency. According to experts, Singh had his task cut out for him because Bhadana, a sitting MLA from UP’s Meerapur (in Muzaffarnagar district) who had switched camp from BJP to RLD just before the assembly election, and was contesting for the SP-RLD combine, is known for changing constituencies and mostly winning them throughout his political career.

However, in Jewar’s Kasna village, Singh secured 1,489 votes while Bhadana could only manage 524. In Bironda village, Singh got 143 votes while Bhadana got 141. At Dedha village, 527 people voted for Singh, and 105 for Bhadana. In Mehdipur, a Muslim-dominated village, Singh secured 1,374 votes, while Bhadana managed 769.

Voting details from Dadri were not readily available.

Experts said voters, particularly women, were inclined towards the BJP this time because it released a lot of safety and welfare schemes, such as distributing ration to economically weaker sections.

“People felt they were not discriminated against during the last five years at police stations or while receiving the welfare schemes,” said Dr Ashok Singh, assistant professor of political science, Meerut University.

BJP leaders claimed that women voters trusted their candidates because the party focused on their safety.

“Our government has ensured the safety of everyone, particularly women, during our five-year regime. Apart from providing people with good governance, development and social welfare schemes, we have also told them that we will improve safety for women. This is the reason that people voted for us across caste, region or religious lines,” said Surendra Nagar, Member of Parliament and BJP vice-president in UP.

Discussing the results, SP leaders said they would work harder for the people. “We thank the people and our workers, who supported us in this election. We need to work harder so that we can perform better in future. And we respect the mandate of the people,” said Raghwendra Dube, spokesperson of SP in Gautam Budh Nagar.

Congress leaders, meanwhile, said they respected the voters’ mandate and would introspect. Anil Yadav, whose wife Pankhuri Pathak was Congress’ candidate from Noida, said, “We respect the voters’ mandate but we are shocked with the result. We need to think and self-introspect.”