UP election: BSP unlikely to win back Jewar, say political experts

Can BSP be the outlier in this neck and neck fight and repeat its 2012 performance? Unlikely, say experts. While the BJP and SP-RLD combine is seen hard at work campaigning, political analysts say the BSP top leadership is conspicuous by their absence

For nearly 15 years from 2002 to 2017, Jewar was the stronghold of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with its candidates winning three consecutive assembly elections from the seat in 2002, 2007 and 2012.

Come these elections and Jewar becomes a crucial and hotly contested seat -- not just by the BSP but all parties. The reason, political analysts say, is the upcoming Noida international greenfield airport in Jewar. (Representative image/HT Archive)

The constituency was considered a bastion of the BSP, with party chief Mayawati hailing from neighbouring Badalpur village in Dadri constituency and voters remaining loyal as the former chief minister rose to prominence in state and national politics.

All that changed in 2017 when Thakur Dhirendra Singh, a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate, riding on the back of the Narendra Modi-Yogi Adityanath wave, wrested the seat from BSP’s Vedram Bhati , defeating him by a margin of 22,171 votes. With the win, Singh managed to avenge his 2012 defeat when he had contested on a Congress and Bhati had defeated him by 9,502 votes.

In May 2019, even Bhati defected from BSP to join BJP, leaving the party without a strong leader to bank on in the region.

Come these elections and Jewar becomes a crucial and hotly contested seat -- not just by the BSP but all parties. The reason, political analysts say, is the upcoming Noida international greenfield airport in Jewar.

According to them, the big fight this time is between the incumbent MLA Singh, who is again contesting on a BJP ticket, and the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance candidate Avtar Singh Bhadana.

But can BSP be the outlier in this neck and neck fight and repeat its 2012 performance? Unlikely, say experts. While the BJP and SP-RLD combine is seen hard at work campaigning, political analysts say the BSP top leadership is conspicuous by their absence.

“If BSP or Congress win or even end up as runners-up,it will be a huge surprise, because the fight on the ground, at least, is between the BJP and SP-RLD. A BJP victory is being predicted because it has a sitting MLA who is seeking votes in the name of the work he has done in the past five years--especially in making the international airport project a reality. The SP-RLD candidate has a strong caste base to his advantage and that is missing with BSP and Congress,” said Bipin Sharma, political analyst and senior journalist.

Bhadana hails from the Gurjar community, which has a voter base of about 50,000, of a total five lakh (500,000) voters in Jewar, as per the latest voters’ list. Bhadana supporters, meanwhile, are also banking on 20,000 Muslim voters and the 24,000 Jat voters to win the seat.

The Rajputs, the other major community in the region and from which Singh hails, has about 70,000 voters, as per the latest voters’ list.

BJP has also deployed MP and BJP vice-president Surendra Nagar, UP transport minister Ashok Kataria, former Union minister and MP Dr Mahesh Sharma and other senior leaders to campaign in Jewar. Congress has deployed chief minister of Chattisgarh Bhupesh Baghel for door-to-door campaigning and SP-RLD’s top leaders are also on the ground. But the BSP has not one senior leader campaigning in Jewar yet.

However, BSP candidate Narendra Bhati Dedha, is optimistic. He said the voters may be silent, but the results will be surprising.

“It is wrong to say that we are not visible on the ground. Our campaign is underway in full steam and our party cadre is reaching out to voters in villages and urban areas daily. However, we are not making a lot of “noise” like others. Our voters are silent and do not want to be vocal. Believe me, our voter base is solid and the results will spring a surprise,” said Dedha, a former journalist.

Both the BJP and SP-RLD candidates refuted Dedha’s claim.

“BSP is not fighting this election the way it used to in the past, hence Dalit voters are supporting us because BJP is working for all communities,” said Singh.

SP-RLD candidate Bhadana said, “Dalits, like other communities, are with me because I work for them.”