E-Paper
Punjab’s covid numbers in March signal uphill battle in second wave
Projections from state government experts show that the state may hit a peak of the disease in the third week of April, when the case count may be between 4,000 and 4500 cases a day
With the daily covid-19 case count in Punjab touching 2,700 on Thursday, there are other trends in numbers related to the infectious disease this month, which indicate that the second wave of the virus will do far more damage than in 2020, and this is no time for living in denial.
This year, the state has already surpassed previous year’s records of active cases, which was at its all-time high in the state at 22,652 on Friday. In September last year, there were eight days when the number of cases reported was above 2,000. In March, there have already been nine days when the case count has crossed 2,000, even as the month has not ended.
In September, the maximum number of cases was registered in the middle of the month; the maximum active case was on September 20, when active cases were 22,278.
Even as Punjab government experts claim that the peak of the second wave had not come yet, the state has added 43,883 fresh cases to its kitty this month till March 26 as compared to 59,000 in September, the month when the state state had been hit by the virus the most.
Positivity rate and CFR down
The only relief the state has had so far is that its positivity rate has come down to 3.9%, compare to 4.5% which the state had reported at the peak of the disease in 2020.
Last week, the state’s daily positivity ratio had touched 6.8% , this increase was also pointed out by the Union government. However, now, as per the state’s nodal officer Dr Rajesh Bhaskar for covid-19, it has been 6% for the past three days,primarily because the state’s testing has reached an all-time of 40,000 tests a day.
“As we have been carrying out record number of tests, our positivity rate has automatically come down. The decrease in CFR is because daily cases are increasing,” said the nodal officer.
Peak likely in second
or third week of April
Projections from state government experts show that the state may hit a peak of the disease in the third week of April, when the case count may be between 4,000 and 4500 cases a day. “This time, the peak may be more serious as people are not following restrictions and are not adhering to social distancing protocols,” claimed Dr Bhaskar.
