TCS-Prayas report forecasts worst-case Covid scenario for Pune: Cases at 60% of last year’s peak

PUNE A joint report prepared by Tata Consultancy Service (TCS) and Prayas Health Group has suggested more curbs in Pune to control the number of Covid cases

PUNE A joint report prepared by Tata Consultancy Service (TCS) and Prayas Health Group has suggested more curbs in Pune to control the number of Covid cases.

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The report has also predicted that in a worst-case scenario, Pune will have 60 per cent of the number of cases when the Covid infection was at its peak in September-October last year.

A final decision on restrictions will be taken on Friday at the Covid review meeting, chaired by Pune guardian minister and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar.

“Experts from TCS and Prayas have compared the proportion of infections prevailing last year and the percentage of infection today. They have also taken factors such as herd immunity and sero-prevalence into account, which was there last year. It has been correlated with the present scenario. They have forecast that in a worst-case scenario, the situation is not going to be as bad as last year. In quantifiable terms, the recount infection and the number of positive patients will not cross 60% of last year’s peak,” said Pune divisional commissioner Saurabh Rao, following a meeting with the experts and the district and municipal authorities.

To control the spread of infection, the report has suggested interventions. The continuation of closure of schools and colleges for at least the next two months has been recommended.

Restrictions on bars, restaurants and eating joints have been recommended, but the type of restrictions has not been specified.

“They have come up with the conclusion that bars, restaurants or any other place where people sit together for more than 30 minutes and interact with each other makes for low compliance of Covid norms. Hence, chances of infection are very, very high. So there should be clear measures and restrictions on these activities,” Saurabh Rao said.

The report has also analysed the impact of reopening of gardens and playgrounds on the spread of Covid and it has been concluded that these places could be potential sources of infection. The report has also recommended a very low number of attendees at social, political gatherings and wedding ceremonies. Currently, 200 people are allowed to be present at public gatherings and wedding ceremonies.

“There will be a pointwise discussion on Friday and decisions will be taken. MPs and MLAs have also been invited for the meeting on Friday,” Saurabh Rao said.

Reacting to the curbs, Pune mayor Murlidhar Mohol denied any possibility of a lockdown, but hinted at more restrictions.

“It is true that the number of Covid patients has been increasing in Pune. The number of active patients has reached around 7,000 in a month. We had imposed some restrictions earlier, but the number hasn’t reduced as expected. There will not be a lockdown, but to break the chain of the infection more restrictions are under consideration. Restrictions on gardens, swimming pools and marriage halls are under consideration,” Mohol said.

Dr Vinay Kulkarni, coordinator, Prayas Health Group, clarified that the report can only guide the administration in the decision-making process, but the ultimate decisions are taken by the administration. “This is just an agent-based model. We just try to modulate the requirements of the administration. I do not give recommendations per se. Through our modelling, we can only indicate the cause and effect aspect. Those are futuristic predictions. We can only make predictions. Ultimately, administration has to decide,” Dr Kulkarni said.