Monday Musings: BJP’s problem of plenty is NCP (SP)’s gain

Several leaders from the BJP and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction are now contemplating or actively pursuing a return to Sharad Pawar’s NCP

In the tumultuous world of Maharashtra politics, the shifts and realignments among political leaders have become almost a cyclical phenomenon. The assembly elections of 2014 and 2019 saw many leaders from the undivided Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) crossing over to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), betting on the latter’s strong prospects of coming to power.

Sharad Pawar will be on three-day Kolhapur tour where he will interact with leaders from his and other parties and explore possible defections. (HT FILE)

The tables seem to have turned in 2024, as the state witnesses a reverse migration of sorts. Several leaders from the BJP and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction are now contemplating or actively pursuing a return to Sharad Pawar’s NCP.

This political migration highlights the pragmatic nature of electoral politics, where leaders often weigh their chances of success over ideological consistency. For instance, Raje Samarjeetsinh Ghatge, a descendent of the Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj, recently indicated his decision to join the Sharad Pawar-led NCP.

Ghatge’s move is particularly significant as he prepares to contest from the Kagal constituency in Kolhapur, where he will face off against the sitting MLA and Ajit Pawar loyalist, Hasan Mushrif. This not only underscores the growing influence of Sharad Pawar’s faction but also reflects the challenges faced by the BJP and Ajit Pawar in retaining their stronghold in western Maharashtra.

Another notable development is the potential defection of Harshavardhan Patil, who is reportedly in talks with the Sharad Pawar faction. Patil’s return could be a game-changer, especially in the Indapur constituency, where the seat-sharing formula might favour Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Patil on his part has clarified that any decision on switching sides will be taken after considering opinions of his supporters, who are already insisting him to take “tutari” in hand, a symbol Election Commission had assigned to NCP (SP).

His shift, if it happens, would symbolise a full-circle moment for both Sharad Pawar and the BJP, as Patil was one of the many leaders who had previously left the NCP for the BJP. This possible shift comes just months after some BJP and Mahayuti leaders already shifting the sides, be it Dhairyasheel Mohite Patil, Nilesh Lanke, and Unmesh Patil.

Speaking at Phaltan in Satara, Ramraje Naik Nimbalkar said if the BJP doesn’t act against it’s leader Ranjeetsinh Nimbalkar, it will not take time for him to hold “Tutari” in hand. The man blowing Tutari (Trumpet) is the party symbol of NCP - Sharadchandra Pawar.

The current scenario presents a unique opportunity for Sharad Pawar and his NCP (SP). After the 2023 split, his faction was left with a smaller but more cohesive group of leaders, including Jayant Patil, Jitendra Awhad, Supriya Sule, and Rohit Pawar. The rebellion by Ajit Pawar in July 2023 saw most of undivided NCP’s 53 MLAs ditch party patriarch Sharad Pawar to join his nephew, Ajit.

The exodus of prominent leaders like Ajit Pawar and others to the BJP had left a void, but it also created space for accommodating returning leaders and aspirants for nomination to fight assembly polls.

With the BJP facing problem of plenty compounded by more aspirants for fewer seats due to Mahayuti alliance getting crowded with another partner of Ajit Pawar-led NCP, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP appears to be in a favourable position to welcome back old allies and strengthen its ranks ahead of the upcoming elections. The recent performance of NCP (SP), which won eight of the ten Lok Sabha seats it contested, has prompted the party’s stocks upward in the political arena.

After the split, NCP (SP) was left with fewer leaders but more opportunities, which has begun attracting leaders from other parties, primarily the BJP. The trade-off for many BJP leaders, who face limited chances of securing election tickets due to the crowded space in Mahayuti, is the appealing opportunities within NCP (SP). As a result, these leaders are drawn to NCP (SP) by the prospect of political advancement that might not be available to them elsewhere.

Sharad Pawar will be on three-day Kolhapur tour where he will interact with leaders from his and other parties and explore possible defections.