UK variant more transmissible, but not more severe: experts

PUNE City scientists have opined that, so far, the information on the new variant of Covid-19 that has emerged from the UK, shows clearly that it spreads about 56%

PUNE City scientists have opined that, so far, the information on the new variant of Covid-19 that has emerged from the UK, shows clearly that it spreads about 56% faster, which might lead to more positives and more deaths in absolute numbers.

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As six new cases of the new strain emerge in the country, experts say that although there have been thousands of mutations of the virus, like any other, mutations in the spike protein are worrisome.

Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, who currently resides in the city, was the former head of epidemiology and infectious diseases at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), and joined the prestigious Dr CG Pandit National chair at ICMR, explained that the much talked about new strain widely in circulation in the UK currently, is not a more severe one in terms of symptoms, but transmits faster, which could mean more number of deaths and more hospitalisations.

He said, “Currently what is essential to understand is that the initial reports coming in from UK epidemiologists is that the transmission rate due to the new strain increases by 56%, which means that earlier if we reported 100 Covid-19 cases then 156 new cases would come out perhaps due to this new mutation. Does it result in severe diseases? It does not result in severe diseases. So as a country it means that if the new strain becomes widely circulated, the number of cases might increase and the number of people who could be hospitalised would also increase. The absolute number of deaths might also go up if this mutated virus tends to prevail in India. It does not have any implication on the vaccine as of now. Whatever data we have also says that the same neutralising antibodies which would be produced against the current strain in circulation perhaps will work similarly against the new strain also. These are preliminary findings.”

Further elaborating on why this particular mutation has led to widespread discussion. Dr Aurnab Ghose, associate professor, Neurobiology department, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (ISSER) said, “Spike protein is the virus protein on the surface which will bind to the proteins in our cells. This is also the point where you want to interfere with neutralising antibodies to where their major functions would be to prevent interaction between spike proteins and our proteins. If the mutations now make the binding of the virus to our proteins much more stronger then it might infect our cells much more strongly. Secondly, if it changes the efficacy of the neutralising antibodies. Anything that changes the rate at which the virus enters our body is always worrisome.”

However, Dr Gangakhedkar also said that ensuring Covid-19 protocols are in place would prevent a second wave.

He added, “We need to remember one thing. With lockdown we ensured that the outbreak occurs late and we got an additional five months. Now the first wave is on a decline and we do not want the second wave. This does not depend on the virus or its mutation, but on the Covid-appropriate behaviour by people. The same hygiene protocols need to be followed. Mutations are so common because this is an RNA virus. It is just that earlier this information was only with the scientific community and now it is coming out in the public. The symptoms of the new virus are also the same. The fear is that it might go to the younger population who will then spread it to the more vulnerable population. About reinfection, too, due to the new strain, there are random cases of reinfections reported in the UK which should not be considered a trend as the numbers are so small.”

This particular mutation has led to discussion among the scientific community. Dr Gangakhedkar said, “This mutation is worrisome for us as scientists because the mutation has also brought in 23 different mutations with it. The virus has mutated multiple times before, but not in the spike protein. Spike protein is the one we are using in the vaccine and it is the one which is highly immunogenic. This leads to our immune system to fight against the virus, so if that changes then we tend to get worried as scientists. There are only two major mutations that we are worried about, one in Denmark, the mink related one; and the UK one; both of which were reported in the spike protein region. It only means for scientists that we have to keep a watch on how this virus will evolve in countries by starting genomic surveillance, which the government has started.”

He further emphasised that contact tracing and isolation is the only way to prevent the spread of this new strain, if it has not already spread in the population. This is even if did enter before, since the strain has been in the UK since September.

He added, “Now that the number is low the government can efficiently contact trace every person who came in contact with these six cases who have tested positive for the new strain when the numbers increase then contact tracing and isolation would become difficult. The government is taking all required steps right from the ban on UK flights. The good thing about this virus is its short life span, so if we can isolate that one person for about 14 days then there is no need to worry. Even after the vaccine comes out we have to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour for quite some time.”