Number Theory: 2024 was a mixed bag for the BJP

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The year 2024 may have been remembered for a national election where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power for the third consecutive time but could not retain the parliamentary majority it had won in the 2014 and 2019 elections — if not for the resurgence the party demonstrated shortly after, winning the state elections in Haryana and Maharashtra. This headline summary apart, however, 2024 has indeed been a mixed bag for the BJP -- India’s largest political party today. Here are four key questions which confronted the party in 2024.

Representational. (HT File)

2024 was a mixed bag for the BJP

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  Did the BJP peak in terms of seats in 2019?

  This is the most interesting question to arise from this year in politics. The BJP’s tally of 303 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general elections was its highest, and the fifth highest ever in India in terms of seat share in the Lok Sabha since 1962 from when the data is comparable (earlier elections also had multi-member constituencies). What really stood out in the BJP’s 2019 performance was the geographical skew of this otherwise stellar performance, where it won an overwhelming 77.6% of the 2,005 (underlying) ACs it contested in 11 states and just 39.6% in the remaining 1,343 ACs in 18 states including Delhi. It was the former category where the BJP lost ground in 2024 despite improving its tally in the latter half in 2024 elections. This is exactly why its seat share went down by 11.6 percentage points at the PC-level despite its vote share staying almost unchanged between 2019 and 2024. Can the BJP regain its dominance in the former category even as it makes gradual gains in the other half of the country? This is the most interesting question from the 2024 Lok Sabha results which will have to wait until 2029 to be answered.
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  Assembly elections in 2024 suggest a renewed momentum behind the BJP

  The trend started from assembly elections which were held along with the Lok Sabha itself. The BJP registered an emphatic victory in Odisha, bringing an end to the BJD’s 25-year-long rule in the state. The National Democratic Alliance led by the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh also did extremely well in the state, winning 164 ACs out of 175 in the state. The BJP’s tally of eight in the Andhra Pradesh assembly is its second highest after the 12 ACs which it won in the state in 1999. The BJP and its allies also went on to win elections in Haryana and Maharashtra overcoming their reverses from the Lok Sabha elections. In fact, if one were to do a long-term comparison of the BJP’s share of MLAs in the country, the party is at its highest ever share today. Not only does this represent a wider footprint for the BJP, it would also be handy in things such as sending members to the Rajya Sabha or electing the new President. While the BJP might have lost some of its edge in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it is still the undisputed political leader in the larger landscape of Indian politics.
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  BJP’s challenge continues to remain a non-Congress opposition

  Of the 240 MPs the BJP has in the Lok Sabha, 153 have won by defeating the Congress in head-to-head contests while only 86 have won in a constituency where a non-Congress party finished second. Between 2019 and 2024, both the Congress and the non-Congress parties improved their strike rates against the BJP but the latter are still ahead. Similarly, 51.2% of the BJP’s 1,592 MLAs today have won in assembly constituencies where the runner up was a Congress candidate compared to just 768 against non-Congress candidates. Going forward, the BJP will face an Opposition led by non-Congress parties in key state elections -- the Aam Admi Party (AAP) in Delhi and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led alliance in Bihar in 2025, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal in 2026 (the BJP isn’t a big force in Kerala and Tamil Nadu which will go to polls in 2026 and it will face a Congress-led opposition in Assam), and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh in 2027. These elections, especially the last one, will set the tone for the 2029 contest.