E-Paper
Russia as a beneficiary in the US-Israel-Iran conflict
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow (Eurasia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.
The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, which began with strikes on February 28, 2026, has disrupted global energy markets and shifted international attention. For Russia, this situation has produced measurable short-term advantages in a few main areas. Relaxation in US sanctions, increased revenue from energy exports and greater operational flexibility in its war in Ukraine. These gains are linked to higher global oil prices and divided western priorities. However, they are temporary, subject to change if the conflict ends quickly or escalates further, and do not offset Russia's broader economic challenges from sanctions.
The conflict has raised concerns about oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global seaborne oil. Disruptions and risks have driven up prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose from around $70-75 per barrel before the strikes to levels above $80 in early March, with peaks nearing $100-120 in volatile trading sessions. Prices have fluctuated but settled higher overall due to supply fears.
Russia, one of the world's largest oil exporters, has seen direct benefits. Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that in the first two weeks after the conflict started, Russia earned an estimated €6 billion from fossil fuel exports (oil, gas, and coal). This included an extra €672 million compared to February levels, with daily revenues averaging around €510 million. This marks a 14% increase from the previous month's average.
Russian Urals crude, its main export grade, has narrowed its usual discount to Brent or even traded at a premium in some markets. Before the conflict, Urals often sold at $10-13 below Brent. In March 2026, deliveries to India have fetched $4-5 above Brent in some cases, with prices reaching near $99 per barrel delivered. The temporary US easing of restrictions (a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy stranded Russian oil without penalties) has supported higher volumes and prices.
These revenues flow into Russia's federal budget, which relies heavily on energy sales to fund government spending, including military efforts. Higher prices mean more income without a major increase in production. It is noteworthy that Russia has rerouted exports to Asia, particularly India and China, using shadow fleets to bypass sanctions. While shipping costs and sanctions reduce net gains, the overall effect has strengthened Russia's finances in the short-term.
The second area of benefit involves western attention and resources. The U.S. and its allies are now managing military support for Israel, operations in the Gulf, and potential escalation risks alongside aid to Ukraine. This has created a split in focus, aid pipelines, and political bandwidth. European Council President António Costa stated on March 10, 2026, that Russia is the only clear winner so far. He explained that Russia gains new resources to finance its war in Ukraine from rising energy prices, benefits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise support Ukraine, and sees reduced international attention on the Ukrainian front as conflict dominates headlines.
Iran, a key supplier of drones and missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, is now focused on its own defence. This has likely slowed or paused increased deliveries to Moscow, reducing the immediate pressure from a potential surge in Iranian-supplied weapons. At the same time, the distraction gives Russia more time to plan operations without the full weight of undivided western support for Ukraine.
European allies have shown signs of fatigue with Ukraine aid, and U.S. supplemental packages face scrutiny amid competing demands. Some reports indicate that US air defence stocks, like Patriot interceptors, are being depleted faster due West Asian needs. While western countries have demonstrated the ability to handle multiple fronts, the current situation provides Russia with breathing room.
Russia has avoided deep direct involvement in the Iran conflict to preserve resources for Ukraine. It maintains channels with Tehran and positions itself as a potential mediator, which could offer leverage in future Ukraine negotiations. For example, trading restraint for concessions on sanctions or frozen assets.
Multiple sources confirm that Russia has gained extra energy income. Around €6 billion in the initial weeks and some strategic flexibility from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. These factors provide short-term support for its position in Ukraine by boosting funding and reducing immediate pressure. Costa's assessment aligns with analyses from think tanks and energy researchers highlighting these links.
However, the advantages are not without limits. Sanctions continue to constrain Russia's economy, forcing discounts and rerouting costs. Higher global prices could fuel inflation elsewhere and prompt renewed Western efforts to enforce energy restrictions. If the conflict resolves quickly, attention and aid could shift back to Ukraine. Prolonged escalation might also damage Russia's ties in the region or create new risks. Russia is not controlling events but adapting to them through market dynamics and western divisions. This reflects how interconnected global crises can produce unintended outcomes for major powers involved in separate conflicts.
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow (Eurasia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.
