As rain activity picks up in September, downpour deficit shrinks
The data, from CMIE, but was compiled from information released by the India Meteorological Department
The rainfall deficiency in the ongoing monsoon season, 10.13% at the end of August, has shrunk to 9.13% till September 15, with monsoon activity picking up, primarily over east and central India and active rainfall conditions likely over the central parts of the country for the next three to four days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The data, from CMIE, but compiled from information released by the India Meteorological Department shows that the deficit rose to over 11% at the end of the first week of September -- it was, again, dry across most parts of India -- before declining. The monsoon season is officially slated to end on September 30.
August, with a 36% rainfall deficiency (for the month) was the driest and warmest in India since records started being kept in 1901, but thanks to the second week, September has been better -- and IMD suggests that is likely to continue for at least a week.
“We had forecast that the monsoon would revive in September. We have recorded very good rainfall in the past one week, which is 17% to 18% excess for the period. We are expecting good rainfall activity over east and central India in the coming week also, therefore, the overall deficiency in rainfall may reduce,” IMD director general M Mohapatra said.
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely over southwest Madhya Pradesh from Friday to Sunday, north Madhya Maharashtra on Saturday and Gujarat region during the weekend, the weather office said.
The monsoons picked up mainly due to the slow west-northwestwards movement of two low pressure systems last week along the monsoon trough.
The monsoon trough is an elongated low-pressure area which extends from a so-called “heat low” (a low pressure over the seas) over Pakistan to the head of the Bay of Bengal region (parts of Odisha, West Bengal, and Bangladesh). This is one of semi-permanent features of monsoon circulation according to the India Meteorological Department.
Thus far, rainfall in September is 2% deficient with 25% deficiency over northwest India; 45% deficiency over east and northeast India; 23% excess over central India and 42% excess over South Peninsula.
There is 9% deficiency over the country since June 1 with 20% deficiency over east and northeast India; 7% deficiency over central India; 10% deficiency over South Peninsula and 0% deficiency over northwest India.
A well-marked low-pressure area formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Odisha-West Bengal coasts is lying over east Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood, and is likely to move across west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat during the next three to four days, IMD added.
A trough is running from southwest Rajasthan to north coastal Odisha in lower tropospheric levels across a cyclonic circulation associated with a well marked low pressure area over east Madhya Pradesh. Another trough is running from the cyclonic circulation associated with well-marked low-pressure area to south Konkan in lower and middle tropospheric levels.
A cyclonic circulation is also lying over south Haryana and neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels. The monsoon trough is lying to the south of its normal position.
Another low-pressure area is expected to form during the week of September 21 to 27, according to IMD.
According to India’s agriculture ministry, 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed, making the monsoon critical. With 47% of the country’s population dependant on agriculture for their livelihood (according to this year’s Economic Survey), a bountiful monsoon has a direct correlation with a healthy rural economy.