Monsoon deficit may get worse, cautions Met dept
The poor showing in June, sparked fears that if July rains don’t make up for the deficit India could be grappling with a below normal monsoon this year.
Rainfall in the first month of monsoon was below the mark, with the country recording a deficit of about five per cent as of June 30, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat, east Uttar Pradesh and west UP were worst hit, reporting a deficit of 86%, 59% and 48% respectively as of July 1.
The overall deficit is likely to widen further in coming days as heavy rain remains concentrated along the Himalayan foothills, meteorologists said. Delhi and neighbouring areas could see isolated showers (1-25%) on Tuesday which will peter out in the second half of the week.
“After June 12 there was a long hiatus, only around June 25 did the monsoon advance,” DS Pai, senior scientist at IMD, Pune, said. The pause in advance of the monsoon delayed rains in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
Usually mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulations and low pressure systems from the Bay of Bengal bring precipitation to Gujarat even before the monsoons arrive, but this year that has not happened.
In its monsoon forecast IMD had forecast rainfall in the four-month period from June to September to be 97% of the long-period average with a low probability of deficient rainfall.
According to the Met’s classification, the monsoon is considered normal if the rains are between 96-104% of the 50-year average of 89 cm.
So the expected rainfall was already in the lower end of the normal range.
The poor showing in June, sparked fears that if July rains don’t make up for the deficit India could be grappling with a below normal monsoon this year.
“We expect July will be better, that should make up for the deficit. The IMD forecast rains in July to be 101% of the long period average,” Pai said.
The monsoon trough, a low pressure belt running west to east along the Himalayas, is currently located along the Himalayan foothills over north of India and Nepal, bringing rain to the foothills along UP, Bihar and the north east.
It is expected to slide back over central India to its normal position by July 6-7 and bring rainfall to the plains, central India and Gujarat.
The other cause for anxiety is emerging El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a phenomena that is linked with poor monsoon. “We do not except El Nino to emerge before September, it will be weak El Nino so we don’t expect any impact on the south west monsoon,” Mahesh Palawat, senior vice president and meteorologist at Skymet Weather, a private forecaster, said. “But we are keeping a close watch.”
