Monsoon to enter active phase with heavy rains over central, NW India

IMD on Friday warned that widespread and extremely heavy (over 20 cm) rain is expected over east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh till August 4 with peak activity during July 31 and August 3

Monsoon is entering an active phase with most of the impact expected over parts of central India and adjoining northwest India according to India Meteorological Department.

Vehicles wade through a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall near ISBT, in New Delhi on Thursday, July 29. (ANI)

IMD on Friday warned that widespread and extremely heavy (over 20 cm) rain is expected over east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh till August 4 with peak activity during July 31 and August 3. Widespread rain will also continue over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana till August 4.

Widespread rain with isolated heavy falls is very likely over Uttar Pradesh during the next five days while scattered, moderate rainfall is likely over Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab during the next five days, IMD warned. There are likely to be intense rainfall spells intermittently over Delhi also during the period.

The eastern end of the monsoon trough is likely to shift north of its normal position during the next 48 hours. Its western end is very likely to remain to the south of its normal position and active during the next 5-6 days.

A fresh low-pressure area is lying over southern parts of central Uttar Pradesh and the associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 7.6 km above mean sea level. Another well marked low pressure area is lying over Gangetic West Bengal & adjoining Jharkhand. It is likely to move west-northwestwards across south Bihar and southern parts of Uttar Pradesh during the next 2-3 days.

“There are two low pressure systems, one over Uttar Pradesh, and another over Jharkhand. They have intensified rain. Also, both winds from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are strong making monsoon very active. The monsoon trough is roughly passing along Ganganagar and Delhi which is why Delhi is also seeing some intense spells. But rains will be very intense over central India in the next 4-5 days particularly east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and west Madhya Pradesh,” explained RK Jenamani, senior scientist, national weather forecasting centre, IMD.

Map of convection clouds over India on Friday. (IMD)

Widespread and very heavy rain is likely over Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar on Saturday and over East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh till August 2. Isolated extremely heavy rain (over 20cm) is likely over Jharkhand and over East Madhya Pradesh on Saturday.

Very heavy rain is likely to continue over east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh till August 4 with peak activity during July 31 to August 3. Isolated extremely heavy falls (over 20cm) are likely over East Rajasthan during July 31 to August 3 and over West Madhya Pradesh from July 31– August 2 .

The current spell of widespread rains over Western Himalayas is likely to continue Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana till August 4. Widespread rain with isolated heavy falls is very likely over Uttar Pradesh during the next five days. Scattered to fairly widespread moderate rainfall is likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab during the next five days.

There is a 1% rain deficiency over the country since June 1 with 3% deficiency over northwest India; 1% excess over central India; 18% excess over peninsular India and 15% deficiency over north and northwest India. Despite extreme rains over the west coast and in parts of northwest India, rain deficiency is yet to be covered. “The deficiency remained in July despite monsoon resuming after a break spell of 10 days earlier this month. This is because the distribution of rains was slightly skewed this month with most rain activity happening over the west coast. But now Punjab to West Bengal entire area will see an active spell. There will be intense spells of rain over Delhi and other parts of northwest India. Central India may see some flooding because very heavy rain is expected over east Rajasthan and parts of Madhya Pradesh,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather.