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Rajasthan election 2023: Congress looks to buck the trend; BJP eyes power
Rajasthan has seen 11 elections in last five decades, with the incumbent government managing to win just twice, in 1985 and 1993
Rajasthan goes to polls on November 23 in a contest between the incumbent Congress, which hopes to break the trend of incumbents being voted out on the back of a slew of welfare schemes, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is hoping to leverage Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and collective leadership, to come to power.
Rajasthan has seen 11 assembly elections in last five decades, with the incumbent government managing to win just twice, in 1985 and 1993; both the times, it was the Congress.
Also read: Will Congress reverse trend or BJP come to power? Rajasthan to vote on Nov 23
In the last five years the state has seen a rebellion by 22 MLAs led by then deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot in July 2020 (he and the MLAs eventually returned to the fold), and a mass resignation dramaby Congress MLAs in September 2022 when the party tried to replace Ashok Gehlot by asking him to contest the polls for national party president (he stayed CM and the party’s central leadership seems to have made peace with him). And at least till August, when they made peace, Gehlot and Pilot were at odds.
The BJP has its problems too — evident in the fact that the party’s state unit has seen three presidents in the past five years ; and evident in the fact that there is no clarity on who will lead the government should the party win. Within the party’s local unit, several names have done the rounds -- former two-time chief minister Vasundhara Raje; Union Jal Shakti minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat; Union railway minister Ashwini Vaishnaw; even Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla. The party has simply announced that it will contest “unitedly” under the leadership of PM Modi.
The BJP is hoping to raise the issues of law and order -- especially crimes against women -- and corruption, especially the “Red Dairy” issue raised by a former minister in Gehlot government, Rajendra Singh Gudha, before he was thrown out of the cabinet. Gudha has joined Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena faction.
While the BJP has linked the dairy to corruption by Gehlot and the PM has raised the issue in at least three election rallies in Rajasthan, the Congress has downplayed the incident.
The Congress is hoping to cash in on the slew of welfare schemes Gehlot has launched, and the 11th hour announcement of a caste survey similar to the enumeration carried out in Bihar -- a move aimed at attracting other backward class (OBC) votes.
Interestingly, both the Congress and the BJP are looking for a generational change.
The two parties plan to retire several senior leaders and give chance to younger leaders.
According to senior BJP leaders, the party is also expected to field some of the union ministers from the state as candidates, like it has done in Madhya Pradesh, where three union ministers --- Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste --- have been asked to contest.
The BJP on Monday announced a list of 41 candidates for Rajasthan, which includes seven sitting Members of Parliament.
The importance of Rajasthan polls for the BJP can be gauged from the fact that the PM has visited the state 11 times since January and nine times in last four months, repeatedly targeting Gehlot over law and order and corruption, while highlighting impact of central government schemes in the state.
Gehlot has come up with poll slogan of “Rahat wali Sarkar (Relief providing government)” to push his government’s welfarist credentials. The Rajasthan government has announced several social security schemes such as subsidised cooking gas cylinder at ₹500 for each household; free ration to poor families; Chiranjeevi Health Insurance of ₹25 lakh to each family; free mobile phones to women; and restoration of the Old Pension Scheme for government employees. By some estimates, it spends around ₹54,000 crore a year on welfare.
In 2018, the Congress won 100 seats in the 200-member assembly and the BJP, 73. Gehlot formed the government with support of the BSP and independent MLAs. In past five years, the Congress has won five of the seven assembly bypolls, with the Hanuman Beniwal led Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and the BJP winning one each. In 2013, when Gehlot was incumbent CM, the party won 21 seats and the BJP, 163.
The Congress may face some more trouble with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM likely to put candidates in 20 Muslim dominated constituencies; the Congress won 18 of these in 2018.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has announced it will contest all 200 seats in Rajasthan.
The Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) is likely to have impact in the tribal belt in southern Rajasthan, posing challenge to the Congress and BJP there. And Gudha will lead Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in the state.
Senior Congress leader and chairman Social Welfare Board, Archana Sharma, said the government in Rajasthanhas given benefits with both the hands to all sections of the society. “We have left no stone unturned to Rajasthan into a welfare state, where the government cares for people. This election for us is about the performance and work done, whereas for BJP it has always been about polarisation and religion.”
BJP MLA Vasudev Devnani said the people have decided to oust Congress from Rajasthan. “They failed to fulfil promises made and cheated youth and farmers. The atrocities against women in the state can’t be hidden.”
Political analyst Manish Godha said: “The big question is whether the trend will change or not? The Congress is counting on the work done, especially related to social sector, while the BJP continues to bank on Modi’s face,” he said.
