Under threat from Trump's US, Canada pivots to India as PM Carney set for March visit: 'Will not be 51st state'

PM Mark Carney is expected to visit India soon as his ministers also make trip, aimed at rapid expansion of bilateral trade after 2 years of strain

Donald Trump's threats to Canada appear to be pushing it towards a significant recalibration of its foreign policy, with Ottawa now aggressively pivoting towards India as a primary strategic and economic partner.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney frolicking at the Quebec Winter Carnival on January 22. (Reuters Photo)

Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit India soon, a move aimed at the rapid expansion of bilateral trade following more than two years of strained relations, reports said on Monday.

This shift comes as the Justin Trudeau-era diplomatic frost thaws under PM Carney, and Canada seeks a massive "trade diversification" to shield its sovereignty from the protectionist tendencies of US President Trump.

According to Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Patnaik, the visit is likely to occur after India tables its Union Budget on February 1, probably in the first week of March. The PM-led Canadian delegation will sign deals on uranium, energy, minerals and artificial intelligence.

For India, which is also suffering high tariffs from Trump, Canada's pivot comes as a bonus along with a trade agreement it's finalised with the European Union. EU leaders were in New Delhi as chief guests for Republic Day celebrations to conclude “mother of all deals”.

‘Fruitful conversation’ between Jaishankar, Anand

The high-level Ottawa-Delhi engagement follows a "fruitful conversation" between Canadian foreign minister Anita Anand and her Indian counterpart S Jaishankar, on the occasion of India's 77th Republic Day.

The two leaders reportedly discussed deepening cooperation in artificial intelligence, economic partnerships, and continued high-level exchanges.

The urgency is driven by a stark reality in Ottawa. Minister Anand recently stated that Canada "won’t be derailed" by Trump’s threats and emphasised that the country has no choice but to forge ahead with a strategy to double its non-US exports within 10 years.

"That is why we went to China, that’s why we will be going to India and that is why we won’t put all our eggs in one basket," Anand said.

Effect of Trump's tariff storm

The backdrop of this pivot is an increasingly hostile trade environment in North America.

President Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods if the country becomes a "drop off port" for Chinese exports. The Trump administration is apparently worried Chinese good may be routed to the US via Canada.

Trump's threat was, in the immediate, triggered by a Canadian deal to allow 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) annually in exchange for trade concessions on food.

While Canada and the US share one of the world's largest bilateral trade relationships — with the US exporting $280 billion to Canada and importing $322 billion in just the first ten months of last year — Beijing's working with Ottawa is being viewed as a vulnerability, Bloomberg reported.

Parallels bring India, Canada closer

India and Canada find themselves in a similar predicament vis-a-vis Trump — as do large parts of the world.

Both countries are currently facing high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration: India at 50% tariff (half of that due to its purchase of Russian oil), while Canada faces a 35% tariff after years of a close relationship with its richer neighbour.

This parallel pressure has accelerated the push for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with a target to raise bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, said the Bloomberg report.

‘51st state’ fear in Ottawa

But the pivot is not merely about balance sheets; it is about national survival in some ways.

Reports have surfaced that the Canadian military has even modeled hypothetical responses to an American invasion after Trump publicly referred to Canada as a potential "51st state", not once but several times.

"Canada will never be the 51st state," Anita Anand asserted at the World Economic Forum in Davos recently.

Experts like Wesley Wark of the Centre for International Governance Innovation note that while a military strike is “extremely unlikely”, the real threat is economic coercion.

This includes US demands for open access to Canadian water, energy, and critical minerals, alongside potential interference in separatist movements in Alberta and Quebec.

Why India, and why now?

Canada’s recalibrated India strategy aligns also with the South Asian giant's growing economic stature, underlined also by India and the European Union setting up a “mother of all deals” for trade.

One of the focus areas for Canada is to trade in gas and minerals, reports have noted. Plus, as compared to China, Ottawa views Delhi as a more stable democratic partner for long-term relations, analysts say.

On the security front, to bolster its under-threat sovereignty, Canada is increasing its defence spending. Strengthening defence ties with India, a major Indo-Pacific power, provides a counterweight to US dominance too.

The stakes are high.

The return of envoys in August 2025 — after friction over the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in Canada allegedly by the Indians — and an agreement to increase diplomatic staffing suggest that both nations are ready to move past the friction. India has denied any role in the killing and other such activities against Khalistani separatists living in Canada.

For India, the renewed interest from Ottawa offers a chance to secure vital energy inputs and expand its reach into the North American market at a time when its own exports are under US tariff pressure. As minister Anand said, “We need to protect and empower the Canadian economy; and trade diversification is fundamental to that.”

A fine balance

Canada's energy minister Tim Hodgson is also heading to Goa soon, where he is to attend a conference and hold meetings with officials in Indian industry and PM Modi’s government.

The two sides are expected to talk about cooperation and potential deals on critical minerals, uranium and liquefied natural gas. Canada has an abundance of those resources.

Minister Anand, however, emphasised that Canada and the US still have a strong relationship and she expects that will continue.

“We have a highly integrated market with Canada,” US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday on TV channel ABC.

“The goods can cross across the border during the manufacturing process six times. And we can’t let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the US,” he said.

A fracture in the North American relationship contains far more economic risk for Canada, as a smaller and less diversified economy, experts have noted.

(inputs from AP, Bloomberg)